TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A report published by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) found that Taiwan and the U.S. have limited options when it comes to responding to a Chinese takeover of Dongsha Island in the South China Sea.
The report, published on Tuesday (Oct. 26), summarized a wargame conducted by the Gaming Lab at CNAS with Taiwanese, American, and regional experts in attendance. During the simulation, Taiwan took a diplomacy-led approach to regain the island, while the U.S. began reviewing military options.
In the wargame, the lack of communication and coordination on a compromised approach led Washington to deploy U.S. Marines and an Army task force to Taiwan. As a result, China demanded the removal of U.S. troops from Taiwan as a prerequisite for cross-strait negotiations, which greatly limited Taiwan’s diplomatic options, per the report.
In the simulation, Washington and Taipei later decided to isolate Beijing through diplomatic and economic means and garner global support among allies and partners to keep the pressure on it. Taiwan called upon its regional partners, including Japan, while the U.S. looked to its NATO allies, the report said.
Ultimately, the U.S. and Taiwan only carried out “non-kinetic and reversible actions” such as cyberattacks and electronic warfare against China and mostly employed diplomatic means to respond to China’s aggression.
The report recommended that Taiwan and the U.S. turn themselves into “poison frogs.” This would entail establishing local garrisons on Dongsha Island capable of “preventing a bloodless fait accompli” and thus placing the onus on China to escalate the use of force.
Taiwan should also be ready to destroy critical infrastructure on its outlying islands to prevent China from using it, the report added.
CNAS stressed that the U.S. and Taiwan should carefully plan, coordinate, and communicate their deterrence policies before a crisis erupts rather than improvising a response afterward.
Additionally, the report found that many non-military responses, including economic sanctions and trade embargoes, took too long to implement. This only underscores the importance of developing and preparing coordinated policies ahead of a potential conflict, the report said.
CNAS also said that the U.S. and Taiwan need to persuade Japan and other regional partners that their involvement is equally vital to quelling a conflict with China. If the U.S. allows Chinese belligerence to remain unopposed, the latter would likely “extend its aggressive behavior elsewhere,” the report said.
The report concluded by saying American and Taiwanese policymakers must think things through when responding to a crisis in order to defend their security interests without escalation.