TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has renewed international debate over the potential likelihood of China launching a similar attack on Taiwan.
Yet, according to analysis by Bloomberg, Russia’s military setbacks in Ukraine are likely to deter China from launching a full-scale invasion. The failure of Moscow to quickly knock out Ukraine in the opening days of the conflict has shown Chinese leaders that superior firepower may not be enough to successfully invade Taiwan.
Bloomberg conducted interviews with over a dozen former officials and leading experts on Taiwan Strait security, finding most agreed that so far Putin’s invasion was deterring Beijing from using military force against Taiwan. This finding was tempered with the acknowledgement that the war is far from over.
The experts named a number of key takeaways from Ukraine that will likely factor into Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s (習近平) changing calculus over Taiwan. These include Moscow’s failure to secure a quick win, its resulting isolation from the global economy, the West’s unified response, the chance of U.S. forces intervening, and the potential for a backlash against the war among Russia’s domestic population.
By contrast, a minority of interviewees felt Putin’s actions would encourage Xi to attack Taiwan. This group gave two main reasons to justify their viewpoint: firstly, they saw economic sanctions as not being costly enough to deter Beijing, and secondly, they doubted whether the U.S. would defend Taiwan militarily.
