TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In the unlikely event that Taiwan gets invaded by China in the near future, expect the United States to take in Taiwanese refugees and levy sanctions on the Chinese government and its leaders.

A Teaching, Research & International Policy (TRIP) poll suggests that in the event of such a calamity, the U.S. should “deploy military forces to the region," according to 72.2% of the foreign policy experts asked. Even so, 46.2% of respondents think China is "no more or less likely" to use force against Taiwan in the next year.

The opinions of 4,598 international relations scholars across the U.S. were sought, and 866 responded, between March 10 and March 14. A similar poll predicted Russia’s invasion one month before it happened. There has been considerable speculation this could presage a similar offensive by China.

In the Taiwan invasion poll, the foreign policy wonks were asked: “Relative to one month ago, is China more or less likely to use military force against Taiwan or Taiwanese military forces in the next year?”

Just over 34% said they believe this was less likely, while 19.65% said it was more likely that China would attack Taiwan within a year. In a follow-up question asking what the U.S. should do if China did attack Taiwan, 90.08% suggested the U.S. take in Taiwanese refugees.

(TRIP image)

There was over 90% agreement to refrain from buying electronic goods from China, put sanctions on its leaders, and send arms and military supplies if China did go ahead with a strike.

However, per Taiwanese government senior advisers, Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine will make China think twice before attacking Taiwan. "This will also affect the trust of Chinese communist leaders in their army, and they will be more cautious when using force."

The TRIP Project is based at William & Mary's Global Research Institute in the U.S. The institute was established in 2008 and is financially backed by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Bank, and the U.S. government.

(TRIP image)