TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A plum rain front that is approaching Taiwan today (May 13) will bring "severe weather" to Taiwan from Saturday through Monday (May 14-16).
As the front starts to arrive today, there will be brief showers or thunderstorms in central, northern, and northeastern Taiwan. There will also be localized showers or thunderstorms in Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu.
Meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮) said the stationary front will linger over Taiwan from Saturday through Monday when rainfall will spread across Taiwan. Wu cautioned the public to beware of "severe weather" during this period, including lightning strikes, strong winds, and sudden heavy rainfall, accompanied by small-and medium-scale convective systems, as well as accumulated "catastrophic" rainfall.
The temperature across the country will drop each day, bringing noticeably colder weather, particularly in northern Taiwan. By Sunday, the daytime high temperature in northern Taiwan will drop to 19 degrees Celsius.
From Sunday evening to Monday morning and from Monday night to Tuesday morning, the low in northern Taiwan will dip to 16 C. The public is advised to wear warmer clothing during this period.
On Tuesday (May 17), Wu predicted the stationary front will move south to the Bashi Channel and the weather should improve significantly across the nation with temperatures rising during the day.
The Facebook group Taiwan Typhoon BBS (台灣颱風論壇) also posted the latest forecast models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Global Forecast System (GFS), and Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) showing "very impressive consensus forecast" for a heavy accumulation of rainfall in Taiwan over the next five days, especially in the western half of Taiwan.
Rain is expected to be the heaviest on Saturday and Sunday, with all of Taiwan affected as precipitation roughly moves from west to east.
In addition, the rainfall from the plum rain front depends on where convection occurs and therefore, it will not fall continuously. It will be normal for the rain to come to a halt for extended periods of time, but the public is advised to be aware of short-term heavy downpours.
For example, it may not rain for half a day, but when a convection cell comes in, heavy rain with an hourly rainfall of more than 30 to 40 millimeters may occur. The solution is to check the radar map and also pay attention to accumulation and flooding caused by sudden heavy downpours.
Taiwan Typhoon BBS stated that the plum rain front is expected to affect Taiwan until Tuesday when it will move south to the Bashi Channel. It is expected that the rain will then ease for the next two to three days.
However, in the medium- and long-term forecast, there will still be a lot of moisture in the latter part of next week and for this reason, more precipitation could occur.
