TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Analysis of the recent People’s Liberation Army (PLA) live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan and the missiles shot over the island quickly fell into two camps. And, no, I’m not referring to the “should she” or “shouldn’t she” debate about whether U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi should have made the trip.
On the one hand were the average journalists and commentators. They took the line that China was responding furiously to Pelosi’s trip and wanted to send a message to the U.S. and Taiwan over Taiwan’s independence, or as the Chinese state-run media usually puts it: “supporting Taiwan secessionist activities.”
Accompanied by dramatic images, they breathlessly pointed to comments like those published in China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency, which described Tan Kefei, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of National Defense, commenting on the matter this way: “If the U.S. side insists on making the visit, the Chinese military will take strong action to thwart any external interference or 'Taiwan independence separatist scheme,' and will be resolute in safeguarding China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity.” And of course, pretty much all the headlines had to feature the word “tensions.”
In short, they bought the Chinese line, well…hook, line and sinker.
China watchers weren't buying it
On the other hand, those of us who’ve been watching China for a long time immediately noticed it simply didn’t add up. None of it was about Pelosi. Her trip was simply a convenient excuse to put their plan into action.
Most news outlets correctly pointed out the incongruous fact that the trip wasn’t unprecedented. Plenty of congressional delegations have visited Taiwan, as did Pelosi’s predecessor House Speaker Newt Gingrich in 1997. In spite of China’s protestations otherwise, her visit didn’t change the status quo one iota.
What really jumps out is that their actions were clearly well-planned. Pelosi’s announcement was on very short notice.
The scale and complexity of the PLA drills couldn’t have been planned in just a few days. That would have been a recipe for accidents and disasters. Similarly, the White Paper on Taiwan “reunification” they dropped following the exercises had clearly been worked on for quite awhile, and the extensive list of Taiwanese items they slapped import bans on suggested some thought had been put into it.
Indeed, as the final touches on this column were being added, a Washington Post report (unpaywalled version here) cited anonymous U.S. officials as saying the United States had seen indications over the last several months that China was considering unprecedented military activity across the Taiwan Strait. This explains Biden's military concerns when he was asked about the Pelosi trip.
China's carefully calibrated escalation
While there is no mistaking that their actions were a massive escalation, they were also carefully calibrated. They planned carefully just how far they were willing to escalate.
The missiles that flew over Taiwan were above the Kármán line, which is generally considered outer space and therefore not in Taiwan’s territorial airspace. Some landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), which sent a message, but didn’t land in their territorial waters.
They regularly flew military aircraft over the Davis Line (the median line in the Taiwan Strait) to show their contempt for what had previously been a tacit “do not cross” line, but when they did it was only by a short distance. They clearly judged, correctly, that President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) would respond to their provocations in a measured and careful way.
The trade blacklist of 2,066 food products and over 100 food manufacturers from Taiwan sounds dramatic, but really wasn’t. According to analysis by CNBC it only impacted 0.04% of bilateral trade.
Some overseas commentators noted that China’s moves backfired or were an own-goal. Certainly, it has gone a long way towards pushing the free world to consider how to support Taiwan, especially in the wake of the Ukraine invasion.
It also antagonized nearly everyone in the region, or with a stake in the region, which is effectively most of the planet. Just shy of half of all world shipping passed through the Taiwan Strait in the first seven months of this year, and avoiding it is costly and difficult.
They weren’t just bullying Taiwan, they were in effect bullying the world’s trading system. China made zero friends out of this, and bolstered their enemies' resolve and unity.
Many commentators overseas were correct that these exercises were useful in training and preparing the PLA for a potential invasion or to impose a blockade. And perhaps they’re right that they are hoping to intimidate Taiwan into some sort of “peaceful reunification,” but it clearly backfired as it just stiffened Taiwanese resolve, which I suspect the Chinese knew would happen.
In short, these exercises were a foreign policy disaster and made annexing Taiwan harder. So why put on this self-destructive show of force?
To Zhongnanhai, it was win-win
From Beijing’s perspective, it was a win-win. This is where the long-term China watchers all largely agree, and differ from the overseas commentators.
The overriding priority for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Chairman Xi Jinping personally is to stay in power. Their primary audience was domestic. Foreign policy considerations took a back seat.
Maintaining a dictatorship of over 1.4 billion people across a continent-sized empire with several subjugated nations isn’t an easy task.
Post-Tiananmen, the CCP formed a tacit agreement with the Han majority public. The party would deliver fast economic growth and prosperity, gradually increase freedoms, and re-build Chinese national glory in exchange for no more nationwide uprisings like in 1989.
The key was to give the people a sense that things were moving in the right direction. They aren’t now.
China’s economy is slowing fast, the housing sector that accounts for roughly 25-30% of the economy is in freefall, inflation is high and youth unemployment is skyrocketing. The Zero Covid policy is destroying people’s lives and, in many cases, livelihoods.
Under Xi, the gradual increase in personal freedoms has gone sharply in reverse. Social credit scores, relentless online censorship and even K-Pop fandom have caused a chill.
Playing the "Taiwan card"
That leaves nationalism, which the CCP is heavily leaning on now.
Starting on July 30, while China was threatening “severe consequences” if Pelosi visited Taiwan, CCP leaders gathered at the Beidaihe coastal resort for a two-week stay to informally discuss what will be on the agenda at the upcoming 20th Party Congress later in the fall. At that congress, it is widely expected that Xi will try to get himself a third term, which in recent years has been unprecedented.
With everything that has been going wrong recently, Xi no doubt feels the pressure to impress on the party cadres he’s still the strong leader they need in charge. One who can keep themselves in power and safe from an angry public.
Pelosi’s trip probably couldn’t have been better timed.
If she backed down and didn’t come, Beijing would have flooded their media with the story that their sabre-rattling successfully scared the American superpower into not crossing their “red lines.” There would have been lots of talk of China’s rise and how the U.S. is a “paper tiger.”
If she came, then it was an excuse to go ahead with the big show of force. Plenty of breast-beating commentary over footage of missiles firing, guns blazing and quotes from scared foreign press.
Of course, they left out the parts where they were restrained, such as the limiting of how far past the Davis Line they crossed and that the missiles over Taiwan were actually in space. They even threw in fake photos to suggest they were far closer to Taiwan than they really were.
If there is another escalation in the runup to the 20th Party Congress, that could indicate that Xi and the CCP are feeling nervous. The way the economy and Zero Covid is going in China, it’s looking likely.
