TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Following large-scale live-fire drills, China is turning to military microaggressions to demoralize Taiwan’s leaders, a China expert from Johns Hopkins University wrote Wednesday (Sept. 28).

After United States House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in early August, China launched a series of massive maneuvers all along its coast, with missiles flying through outer space over Taiwan.

However, Beijing’s strategy has since moved into a new phase of “geopolitical microaggressions,” noted Hal Brands, a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, in an opinion piece for Bloomberg News.

China was likely to escalate coercion into the “gray zone” space between peace and war. As possibilities, he named overflights of Taiwan’s airspace, intrusions into its territorial waters, and intercepts of flights and ships.

The aim would be largely psychological, by showing the Taiwan government’s inability to resist coercion. Taipei could respond militarily but risk escalation, or stay passive and look impotent, Brands wrote.

In such a scenario, the Biden administration will also have to choose between a tough approach with sanctions against China or a quiet response with arms deliveries while facing pressure from Congress and from Taiwan.

According to Brands, who sits on the State Department’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board, Taiwan officials think a sharp reaction would be necessary to prevent China from misinterpreting the Taiwanese people’s will to fight and assuming an invasion would be successful.

Washington will need to find a solution that strengthens Taiwan without giving the impression that it is the democracies raising tension instead of China, Brands concluded.