TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A former British diplomat has warned that should China try to invade Taiwan, it could once again “look into the abyss” of a Tiananmen-type insurrection that would split the country.

Charles Parton, who is also a respected China scholar at a number of high-profile institutions, believes an attack on Taiwan is “extremely unlikely.” But if it did happen, it would be a “global economic and political disaster.”

Writing in the Financial Times, he said an attack would be difficult because of the Taiwan Strait. Another factor is that Taiwan has adopted a “porcupine” defense, a form of asymmetric warfare that relies on small, mobile platforms that are difficult to knock out and would cause considerable carnage.

Though Parton believes that Xi Jinping (習近平) is not as deluded or irrational as Russian leader Vladimir Putin, he does think the West should be arming Taiwan as a deterrent at the very least.

Furthermore, Parton is a believer in Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” or its ability to defend itself from China’s depredations, because China needs semiconductors. Without them, its economy grinds to a halt.

In addition to Western sanctions, this would deal a heavy blow to China’s supply chains and economy. “Economic collapse would bring suffering on an unprecedented scale,” Parton says.

And this would lead to protests, and possibly insurrection, like in 1989.