TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — With the control of the capital at stake, the three leading contenders are in a dead heat in non-partisan polling. All have very different backgrounds, and represent different visions for the future of the nation.
Further, three of Taiwan’s four directly elected presidents have used their position as Taipei mayor as a springboard to launch them to the very top. It doesn’t get more tense and dramatic than this.
The latest My-Formosa poll (whose numbers I’ll be using in this article, unless otherwise stated) has the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) in the lead, independent Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) second, and Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in third. However, all three are within 1.8% of each other, well within the margin of error of 3%.
In my previous column on the race, I went into what this tightness means for the candidates, how the local press obsession with “dump-save” strategic voting is at this point in the race misguided and the remaining 10.5% undecided voters. Now it’s time to start looking closely at the candidates, who all have very different strengths and weaknesses, and see how they match up.
Chiang’s wild backstory
Firstly, we will look at Chiang, who has a wild backstory. For starters, that wasn’t the name he was born with, he was born Wayne Chang Wan-an (章萬安), son of former Foreign Minister and Vice Premier John Chang (章孝嚴).
One day, when Chiang was in high school, his father sat the family down and announced that — surprise! — he was born the illegitimate son of Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國) in China. This made former President Chiang Ching-kuo, Chiang Wan-an's grandfather, and the generalissimo himself, Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) his great-grandfather.
There are some who question the accuracy of this claim, and the political ramifications of those doubters' claims will be discussed more in an upcoming column on Chen Shih-chung. Regardless, Chiang and his family are certain it is true, and legally changed their names to Chiang to honor the connection. Since most people give them the benefit of the doubt and respect their claim, in this campaign it is being taken at face value.
Complicated impact on campaign
This legacy has a complicated impact on the race. On the plus side for Chiang, KMT supporters in Taipei seem to love dynastic heirs. The party has shooed in the princeling sons of important KMT officials as their mayoral candidates for most of this century — and there is no greater family pedigree for the KMT faithful than the Chiangs.
But for many others the family is associated with the 228 Massacre, the White Terror, martial law and all that came with those events. They despise what the Chiangs did to the country.
There is a segment of the population, however, that has a more mixed view of Chiang Ching-kuo (such as the president), even if they still take a dim view of Chiang Kai-shek, and may not be so inclined to hold Chiang’s background against him.
Like any KMT candidate for mayor, he can count on the party stalwarts, and won’t get the deep greens regardless of what he does. His background, however, puts him in an interesting position with the voters in the center.
To reach those more forgiving voters, Chiang and his supporters need to walk a fine line. He needs to both honor his ancestors and reassure voters he’s a firm supporter of democracy and human rights.
Chiang Kai-shek Memorial tightrope
As for the Chiang Kai-shek Memorial, to show he’s in favor of progress, he proposed to rename it, “The Building of Taiwan Memorial Hall” (台灣建設紀念館), which would “commemorate all of the Taiwanese ethnicities, across generations, and the results of their efforts and contributions over the last 70 years.”
However, when asked about the giant statue of his great-grandfather and highlighting transitional justice and the dictatorship era, he replied “the two Chiang presidents protected the Republic of China, promoted the development of Taiwan, and you can’t wipe away their contributions; this is something all Taiwanese know, and is self-evident.”
This mix of compromise and having it both ways seems to have worked. The press moved on and Chiang is still very competitive in the race. This probably wouldn’t have gone over anywhere near as well outside of Taipei, but he apparently understands the voters of his city.
While Chiang’s lineage is a big part of his persona, it is the source of his most unique challenges as a candidate. Even so, he seems to have, at least for now, mastered the tightrope of identity.
Cross-generational appeal
At 43, Chiang is youthful, and has a charming young family. He is good-looking, physically fit and comes across as affable.
However, unlike a former KMT Taipei mayoral candidate who was also fairly young, handsome, and athletic at the time — Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) — Chiang comes across as less charismatic and lacking in warmth. Chiang comes across as more reserved, and doesn’t have the gooey-eyed, adoring fan base that Ma attracted.
He is, however, at ease around younger voters, unlike the DPP’s Chen Shih-chung. Unusually for a KMT candidate, he leads his DPP opponent by 9% in the 20-29 demographic and they’re effectively tied in the 30-39 bracket, though he still trails Vivian Huang in both age groups.
Though he has managed to make himself competitive with younger voters, he only takes the lead with the age brackets over 50. That is, however, to be expected in a KMT candidate in Taipei.
Perceived as a lightweight
Though his cross-generational appeal makes Chiang a strong candidate, he has one very significant problem. The perception is he is a lightweight.
There are several sources for this perception. Despite having been the party’s declared candidate for months, when Chen entered the race he had his campaign team up and running in less than two weeks, while Chiang had not yet finalized his.
This perception predates the Taipei race. With only a few exceptions, such as voting for marriage equality, he has been viewed as simply towing the party line, without many original contributions.
Most voters would be hard-pressed to remember anything about his six years in the legislature. To his credit, he isn’t known for the violent and outrageous antics of some of his peers, but for the most part he has simply stood with fellow KMT lawmakers, following their lead.
One example of his simply following the party, where many heavyweights didn’t, is when China "blockaded" Taiwan with live-fire military exercises, the KMT sent a delegation to China. Many in the party were upset, and some outraged, but Chiang towed the party line.
Then there is the lack of experience. He has no executive experience in government to speak of, unlike his opponents, who have it in spades.
Can Chiang win Taipei?
In the poll there were six questions related to his suitability to be mayor. He came in behind the other two candidates in five of them. He did come first in one — that he wouldn’t arrogantly exercise power — but one wonders if that is because many voters don’t think him capable of it.
He is aware of this perception problem, and has worked to counteract it, though so far without much apparent success. His website lays out policy proposals that look pretty typical for the times, with the only slightly unusual plan being to make Taipei Taiwan’s first zero stray city.
Unless or until one candidate starts to really fall behind, the battle will be over the 10.5% undecideds. Some of those probably just aren’t paying attention, may not vote, or may pick a silly reason to pick a candidate like “he’s handsome, I’d prefer to see him on the news every day rather than the other two.”
We know they’re not likely to be strongly inclined to pick based on party, and at this late in the game, if Chiang’s dynastic history hasn’t won them over by now, it probably won’t. His ability to appeal across generations may be of some help with some age brackets, but how much it’s hard to say.
It is likely that a good portion of that 10.5% is looking to vote for someone they think would do a good job as mayor. On that issue, Chiang has an uphill battle compared to his two competitors.
