TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — The Kuomintang (KMT) is almost certainly going to win a strong majority of the seats open in Saturday’s (Nov. 26) election. Almost everyone is predicting they will “win” the election, but that’s a bit subjective — it depends on where you stand and your expectations.
When he was running for KMT party chair, Eric Chu (朱立倫) promised if elected he would deliver 16 administrative seats out of the nation’s 22 total, including “over half” of the special municipalities. They currently hold 14 of the 22, and two of the “big six” special municipalities.
For Chu and the KMT, a win would be to increase their total. If their total drops, that would be something of a loss, though that would be somewhat mitigated if they win Taipei City. Similarly, if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were to pull out an upset and make gains over their current total of seven, that would be viewed as something of a win.
As explained in more depth previously, the KMT has the advantage in local elections, having bested the DPP in all but one election cycle this century. Additionally, this cycle is a bad one for the DPP, as their best candidates are being term-limited out and they’re having to field relative unknowns, whereas most of the KMT’s incumbents can run for re-election in a country that more often than not re-elects incumbents.
'Conservative, safe bet'
Based on the last three local and national elections, I have a theory that a new block of voters has emerged in Taiwan following the 2014 Sunflower Movement, what I refer to as “conservative, safe bet” voters. These voters vote for KMT candidates in local elections as the safe bet, based on the assumption they will be better administrators (generally the party promotes bottom-up, local positions). However, they vote DPP in national elections as the safe bet because they are viewed by these voters as more trustworthy and reliable on national security and managing the China threat.
It is just a theory, and three elections don’t provide a fleshed-out data set, but the theory explains a lot of the results in those three elections. I’m eagerly awaiting the results of this election to further expand on this — or prove it wrong, whatever the case may be.
Prediction time
I am expecting the KMT to win 13-16 seats, the DPP 4-7, the TPP 0-1, and independents 0-2. Below is a breakdown of all the races. Almost certainly I’ll get some of these races wrong, and there are a number of tight races that could go either way, but I think the end result will fall in the ranges just outlined.
Likely KMT (9): New Taipei, Taichung, Yilan, Hsinchu County, Hualien, Chiayi City, Taitung, Kinmen, Lienchiang County (Matsu)
Lean KMT (5): Taipei, Taoyuan, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin
Lean Independent (1): Miaoli
Lean TPP (1): Hsinchu City
Likely DPP (4): Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County, Pingtung
Lean DPP (2): Keelung, Penghu
Interesting races: Taipei
The Taipei race is the most avidly watched, and is a fascinating contest between three interesting candidates. All three frontrunners could pull this off, but the one I think has the hardest climb to win is the DPP’s Chen Shih-chung (陳時中).
Chen supporters are hoping the other two leading candidates, Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) of the KMT and independent Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) would split the pan-blue vote. That doesn’t appear to be the case, however. The numbers show that Huang was taking support from both sides equally, or even a bit more from the DPP.
Chen is so well known after appearing on television for over 900 days straight during his tenure as head of the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) that most likely everyone has already made up their mind about him, and as such he is less likely to get any remaining undecided voters. He’s also unlikely to peel off support from the other candidates.
Vivian Huang has a real shot if, in the closing days, she successfully makes her case to undecided voters, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she pulls off a victory. I expect her vote total to be the most variable and unpredictable of the three: I could easily see her coming in first, second, or third.
Chiang Wan-an is operating in a city that traditionally favors his party, and has the strongest get-out-the-vote machine of the three. That solid base gives him something of an edge.
Interesting races: North Taiwan
In Yilan, the incumbent Lin Tzu-miao (林姿妙) of the KMT is on trial in a widespread corruption case, but that apparently hasn’t deterred her supporters. If she can pick up only a relatively small chunk of the remaining undecideds, she would still win.
Keelung is a tough one to call, but there the KMT candidate has faced allegations of shady business deals and potential tax evasion. That will probably dampen his appeal to undecided voters, though the city traditionally leaned pan-blue, so he could still win.
Taoyuan initially looked like an easy win for the DPP, but as previously noted the implosion of their candidate’s campaign in a plagiarism scandal and his replacement has seriously damaged the party in both Taoyuan and Hsinchu. Traditionally, this city leaned pan-blue, but eight years under a popular DPP mayor means there is still a shot they could pull it off if they did a good job of making their case during the closing two weeks, but it’s also an uphill climb.
I noted last week that Hsinchu City is a must-win for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). In spite of being plagued with scandal, I think their candidate Ann Kao (高虹安) has the edge. Since that column came out, the KMT’s Lin Ken-jeng’s (林耕仁) campaign appears to be losing support to strategic “dump-save” (棄保) voters abandoning him to support Kao to stave off the DPP’s Shen Hui-hung (沈慧虹), which might just give her the edge she needs.
The Miaoli race is so crazy that I gave it the headline: “Taiwan elections: Murderer leads in polls and might win Miaoli.” That candidate, KMT politician turned defector Zhong Dongjin (鍾東錦) might be able to pull some “dump-save” votes from the KMT to fend off a serious challenge by the DPP’s Hsu Ting-chen (徐定禎).
The big question mark is which way will the large number of undecideds jump? Miaoli is generally older and more conservative, but will disgust at how truly awful a candidate he is turn them off? Would they dare to vote for the DPP, a party that has never won the county, or will they just stay home? I suspect many will just stay home, and if they do, then Zhong has the edge.
Other interesting races
I had to struggle with whether to put Changhua, Yunlin and Nantou in the “likely KMT” or “lean KMT” category. I put Changhua in the “lean” category because the incumbent, Wang Hui-mei (王惠美) isn’t terribly popular.
The Yunlin race seems to have the KMT ahead, but not by an unsurmountable amount in a pan-green-friendly county. In Nantou, there are some indications that the DPP’s candidate Frida Tsai (蔡培慧) seems to be gaining some traction, but Nantou has long been in KMT hands, so it would be an upset — but not inconceivable.
In Chiayi City the election is being delayed until Dec. 18 due to the death of a candidate, but it will likely remain in KMT hands. The KMT incumbent candidate, Huang Min-hui (黃敏惠) is a political powerhouse, having served two terms as mayor from 2005 to 2012, then served briefly as an interim KMT chair, and came back to win election as mayor again in 2018.
The KMT describes the Penghu race as a “critical battleground,” and with the pan-blue vote split, it is no wonder why. Unless one of those can affect a “dump-save” victory over their rival, which appears unlikely, then this will go to the DPP.
In Kinmen, which the DPP doesn’t even bother running candidates in, the KMT incumbent looks likely to hold off a challenge by a former county commissioner looking to get his job back.
