TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Yesterday’s elections were a bloodbath for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). It was their worst result this century, but worse it also undercut Taiwan’s international image and possibly made it harder on themselves in the upcoming national elections.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has worked tirelessly, and with great success, to build a positive image for Taiwan overseas: Firming up support overseas both in popular public opinion and in the corridors of power, and cementing an image of Taiwan worldwide as a strong democracy on the frontline against a hegemonic authoritarian empire bent on annexing a peaceful, free, and proudly independent nation that stands as a model of good behavior and global citizenship. To many in Taiwan, including myself, this makes Tsai and her foreign policy team under Foreign Minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) heroes worthy of veneration in the history books.
Dark force undermining Taiwan's diplomacy
Unfortunately, recently a dark force was at work undermining her efforts: DPP party Chair Tsai Ing-wen. A devastating accurate Reuters headline sums it up this way: “Taiwan president quits as party head after China threat bet fails to win votes.”
Taiwan’s local elections are just that: Local. Unfortunately, Chair Tsai tied this election to nationalism, resisting the China threat, openly stated that a vote for the DPP was a vote for democracy (and a bit narcissistically herself) and that voters needed to vote for the DPP to “send the right message to the world” — as if somehow your local city councilor and mayor had anything significantly substantive to do with those issues.
As the Reuters piece accurately, and rather tartly, put it: “Polls opened in Taiwan on Saturday in local elections that President Tsai Ing-wen has framed as being about sending a message to the world about the island’s determination to defend its democracy in the face of China’s rising bellicosity.”
In national elections, where leaders and lawmakers are chosen to make critical foreign policy and national defense decisions in the face of the China threat, the appeals that Tsai made in this election are substantive and important issues and concerns. This messaging appealed to voters’ concerns in the national elections in 2016 and 2020, delivering landslide victories for the DPP in both.
But local elections are about sewage system maintenance, public transportation, preschool access and other issues that are totally unrelated to sending a message about defending democracy on the world stage. Worse, the DPP could have included elements in their campaign platforms on issues where local governments could — and should — play a critical role in preparing against the China threat, such as with preparing air raid shelters, hardening infrastructure, organizing emergency response teams and so forth, but chose not to in favor of simply repeating nationalistic slogans.
On election day, Taiwanese voters made it clear they had seen right through this rather desperate, late-in-the-game attempt to reframe the debate via empty grandstanding. It blew up in the DPP’s face: Voters in Taiwan knew they were being gamed.
The Reuters report also included this accurate statement: “Although the outcome of the election will be an important measure of popular support for both parties, it cannot necessarily be read as an augur for the next presidential and parliamentary races in 2024.” That is likely true, but the DPP now has a problem: The slogans and appeals they used in this election are now somewhat tarnished by association with a naked partisan appeal not backed with substance.
Own goal by DPP
The DPP now needs to think carefully about how they frame these genuinely critical issues for the upcoming 2024 national elections in a way that appeals to voters, without once again coming across as just another cynical pitch. These issues genuinely matter in national elections, and the DPP now needs to think through how they intend to campaign in a way that once again makes them real and important to voters.
Thankfully, the Reuters piece was good and journalists Sarah Wu and Yimou Lee deserve props for getting it right in one of the world’s most powerful news sources. But the damage to Taiwan’s reputation from other sources is already starting to appear.
That same Reuters piece was edited to run under the cringeworthy headline “Taiwan votes in local elections billed as message for China and the world” on CNN. As of this writing, the election results have only been finalized hours ago, but it’s already becoming clear it is only going to go downhill from here.
China has already seized on the propaganda potential of the DPP tying this election to the China threat, and failing miserably. There is no other way to read a headline like “China says Taiwan election result shows people want peace” as anything other than a win for China: And the DPP handed it to them on a silver platter.
For very simple, practical and local reasons the Kuomintang (KMT) was very well positioned coming into this election to win big. There is no broader message to be drawn from it.
The only upside to this debacle is that after giving China and those who argue that Taiwan isn’t worth defending a golden opportunity to drive a wedge into the debate, at least DPP Chair Tsai has resigned. Hopefully, that will help clear the way for President Tsai and Foreign Minister Wu to clean up this disaster.
