TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A report released by the Pentagon on Tuesday (Nov. 29) said that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has "set its sights to 2027" in terms of achieving the capability to invade Taiwan and the paper listed four possible forms of military actions China could launch against Taiwan.
The U.S. Department of Defense's annual report on the "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China," also known as the 2022 China Military Power Report, is 196 pages long and details China's military development and external actions from 2021 through 2022.
The report mentioned that since last year, China has expanded its diplomatic, economic, political, and military pressure on Taiwan. At the same time, it has continued to take "provocative and destabilizing actions" in the Taiwan Strait and has frequently conducted island-seizure drills.
The paper listed four possible military actions the PLA could take against Taiwan, including air and naval blockades; limited force or coercive operations; air and missile campaigns; and a full-scale invasion of the country.
Air and Maritime Blockade
In the air and sea blockade scenario, China will block Taiwan's sea and air traffic, cut off import and export routes, launch large-scale missile attacks, and seize Taiwan's outer islands in an attempt to force the country to surrender. In addition, the PLA may simultaneously launch electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and information operations against Taiwan to further isolate its government and people and to control international messaging on the operation.
Limited Force or Coercive Options
Under this scheme, the report points out that the PLA may carry out "disruptive, punitive, or lethal" military assaults with a limited scope such as cyberattacks or kinetic strikes on Taiwan's political, military, and economic infrastructure within a narrower scope, in order to cause panic in Taiwan and reduce the trust of the populace in the leadership. Meanwhile, PLA special operations forces could infiltrate Taiwan and carry out attacks on infrastructure or high-level government officials.
Air and Missile Campaign
In such a campaign, China could use precision missiles and air strikes to hit key government and military targets in Taiwan, such as air bases, radar stations, missiles, space assets, and communication facilities. The purpose of these strikes would be to weaken Taiwan's defense capabilities, eliminate government leadership, and destroy the population's determination to resist.
Invasion of Taiwan
PLA documents present different approaches to an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, the most notable of which is the "Joint Island Landing Campaign." Such an operation would entail a complex operation that combines electronic warfare, logistics, air, and naval support.
The goals would be to break through or bypass Taiwan's coastal defenses, establish a beachhead after seizing the shore, establish combat capabilities on the west coast of Taiwan, and then seize key targets or the whole island.
The report mentioned that a large-scale amphibious landing operation is one of the most difficult and complex military operations. It requires the acquisition of air and sea superiority, quickly establishing a strong supply chain onshore, and unencumbered support.
However, China's intention to invade Taiwan may lead to international intervention. The inevitable loss of manpower and materiel, the complexity of urban warfare, and the potential risk of an insurgency pose major political and military risks to Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
2027 Deadline
2027 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA, and it is also the target date set by Xi for full modernization of the military. The report stated that the PLA plans to accelerate the integration of military forces before 2027.
If the goal is achieved, the PLA will have a "more credible military tool for the Chinese Communist Party to wield" as it seeks to unify Taiwan by force by that time, according to the report.
