TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER) on Friday (Dec. 9) cut its forecast for Taiwan’s 2022 and 2023 economic growth to 3.04% and 2.72% respectively.

The leading think tank said external factors played a key role in the downward revisions. The continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, inflation and interest rate hikes in the United States, the tech war between China and the U.S. all contributed to a high level of uncertainty.

Low economic growth of 2% on a global level caused a slowdown in international trade, affecting Taiwan’s exports in a negative way, according to CIER. The think tank described the country’s economic situation as “flat inside and cold outside,” the Economic Daily News reported.

CIER this year cut its gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for 2022 from 3.56% in July to 3.28% to 3.04% Friday. Nevertheless, the fact that Taiwan managed to achieve at least 3% of economic growth during four consecutive years amounted to a success, especially considering the COVID-19 pandemic, the think tank said.

Experts predicted a positive trend for inflation, with a decline from 2.94% for 2022 to 1.97% next year. Taiwan did have to continue monitoring the international situation, with inflation, exchange rate fluctuations, and financial policies as important factors likely to influence changes.