Saturday (Dec. 10) marks the final opening up of Taiwan’s borders to unlimited numbers of visitors, which you might think would be a day of celebration for those in tourism and related industries, such as hospitality.

But not so fast.

Despite having, in mid-October, already waived one visitor cap and compulsory quarantine for arrivals from overseas as part of the country’s COVID-19 prevention measures, tourism numbers have not increased as much as was expected in some quarters.

In fact, enjoying the relative calm of a weekday stroll around Taipei’s Dihua Street, it was clear from talking to local business people that tourism numbers are still in the doldrums. Bar and restaurant owners all said the same: Japanese, South Koreans, and Malaysians have not come back in numbers yet.

They used to comprise the mass of visitors to Dihua, especially Japanese, who have a post-colonial interest in much of the architecture that has been preserved in the area. It’s a storied street that is famed for Yongle Fabric Market, tailors, and old-time confections, tea, herbs and spices.

Before COVID it was a magnet for Japanese history buffs and offers an Instagram-friendly hotchpotch of cool bars and sweet coffee shops, with plenty of stores to buy trinkets as gifts. While some stores and restaurants have gone to the wall because of the pandemic downturn, new places have opened up in the meantime.

More Taiwanese tend to visit these days, according to local business people. They, in turn, have been introducing the area to Westerners and others who opened up their borders for travel earlier.

Close to what used to be the main harbor for goods into Taipei at Dadaocheng, the whole of Dihua Street turns into a mountainous sea of people during New Year. It's where people come to get their traditional supplies. It will be the usual colorful carnival.

After New Year it is expected that visitor numbers will at some point return to the 10 million or so a year before COVID. Certainly, this was Premier Su Tseng-chang's (蘇貞昌) hope, who said Friday (Dec. 9) at the 66th anniversary of the Taiwan Visitors Association that a revival was close.

However, expecting tourism to bounce back quickly is not how it works.

First, people usually plan to travel up to a year in advance, during the traditional summer or winter breaks.

Second, not every country or economy has performed as well as Taiwan during the 2.5 years of COVID. For example, the Japanese currency has fallen, air tickets are expensive and purchasing power has been affected. This, at least in part, explains why the number of Japanese visitors to Taiwan in October was just 9,625, whereas there were 36,000 going the other way.

Third, there are still uncertainties. Will COVID mutate again and cause winter mayhem? Will a hike in winter energy bills because of the Ukraine war stop Europeans from traveling? Will Americans think Taiwan is safe to visit after the China scares following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit?

Fourth, it took decades for Taiwan to increase its tourism numbers. As recently as 2011, there were just 6 million visitors a year, according to Statista. In 2020 there were just 1.38 million inbound tourists, so there is a lot of ground to make up.

Finally, the majority of Taiwan’s tourists are not going to arrive, since they were from China, and it has shut its borders because of the zero-COVID policy.

China is Taiwan’s number one source of tourist traffic and has been since the Kuomintang (KMT) came back into power under Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) in 2008. As of 2019, China was first with 2.7 million annual visitors, Japan second with 2.2 million, and Hong Kong third with 1.8 million.

Before the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) returned to power in May 2016, there had been a great leap in visitor numbers from China. A tenfold increase in the number of tourists ended up seeing 4.2 million Chinese visitors in 2015, making up 40% of all tourist arrivals.

After the DPP’s Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) was elected, China decided to punish the nation by throttling tourism, in the belief that it would make the DPP unpopular.

To a businessperson, all money is welcome, but we already know that tourism income from China cannot be relied upon. At any time and for any perceived slight, the government will forever assert control by turning on the cash spigot when it suits, and turn it off again when it doesn’t.

Surely, too, only a desperate person would trust someone who threatens them, as China does to Taiwan with its constant talk of taking the island nation by force.

No, this is a time to look at other markets, such as those 16 Southeast Asian countries covered by the New Southbound Policy: Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Australia, and New Zealand.

Or look further afield to its friends in the U.S., Japan, Australia, Europe, and elsewhere. If this is successful, and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t be, then Taiwan’s tourism industry will be the better for it in the short and long term, since the market will be more reliable, mixed, and sustainable.

However, it won't be a quick fix.