TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The first cold wave of winter is forecast to arrive in Taiwan from the north Friday night (Dec. 16) and cause temperatures in the open plains to drop to as low as 5 degrees Celsius by Sunday (Dec. 18).

WeatherRisk Explore Inc. CEO Peng Chi-ming (彭啟明) said that temperatures will warm slightly, but due to rain, conditions in northern Taiwan will continue to feel wet and cold due to rain. Peng forecast that a weather front will arrive Friday night that will bring drier weather but also much colder temperatures.

Peng predicted that by the early morning hours of Sunday, temperatures in northern Taiwan could drop to between 7 and 8 C, while flat, open areas could see the mercury plummet to between 5 and 7 C. He warned that during this period, residents of central and southern Taiwan should beware of radiant cooling and diurnal temperature variations.

Peng said that due to moisture in the air, snowfall is possible in mountainous areas at an elevation of 2,000 to 3,000 meters on Friday and Saturday (Dec. 17). However, by Sunday, because conditions will be drier, Peng said that snow will be less likely.

Meteorologist Daniel Wu (吳德榮) in his weather column Friday said the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model released on Thursday (Dec. 15) shows the scope of rainfall has expanded. It predicted that central Taiwan and areas north, as well as the eastern half of the country, will see significant rainfall, while southern areas will see localized rain.

Wu also predicted that the first cold wave of the winter will move south into Taiwan this evening and the temperature will gradually drop. The temperature ranges in various parts of the country today are as follows: 15 to 21 C in northern Taiwan, 16 and 24 C in central Taiwan, 16 and 28 C in southern Taiwan, and 16 and 26 C in eastern Taiwan.

Wu said the latest ECMWF model shows that the cold wave will continue to move southward on Saturday, with some rain in the north and east. From Sunday to early Monday (Dec. 19), the cold wave will be at its strongest and temperatures at their lowest, but the weather will be clear and stable.

He predicted the Taipei Weather Station could see temperatures as low as 8 C, while temperatures in flat areas could drop below 6 C. He advised the public to stay warm and agriculture, fishery, and aquaculture operators to take precautions.

The forecaster said the cold wave will gradually weaken during the day on Monday and the weather will be sunny and stable, and temperatures will slowly rise. On Tuesday (Dec. 20), the weather will be "mild, warm, and comfortable" during the day and cold during the morning and evening.

On Wednesday (Dec. 21), ECMWF's model shows that another wave of dry, cold air is expected to move southward into Taiwan. In the first half of the day, there is a chance of localized, short-term rainfall in northern Taiwan, but the weather will soon clear up across the country in the afternoon.

Wu said that starting Wednesday, daytime temperatures will feel warm, but during the evening, the temperature will drop very quickly due to radiant cooling. He added that for the rest of week after Wednesday, temperatures in flat areas in the early mornings will often drop below 10 C and advised the public to take steps to keep themselves warm.