TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — On Jan. 15 the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will hold its election for the next party chair. Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) will win.

This bold prediction is made because, somewhat surprisingly, he is running unopposed. Even more interesting, major figures in most or all of the DPP factions have endorsed him, or at least indicated their faction will not challenge him.

There were only really a handful of potential serious challengers. Possibly the most powerful one, outgoing Taoyuan Mayor Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦), just took a serious hit in a plagiarism scandal, and also belongs to the same New Tide faction as Lai.

It’s not unusual for challengers to appear, knowing full well they are going to lose. They do so to lay down a marker for a future run, build name recognition connected to the post, represent a faction or because they hold a strong ideological view at odds with the frontrunner — or some combination of those factors. Not one did.

That could signal smooth sailing for the DPP going into the next presidential election. Traditionally in Taiwan, the party chair is the party’s presumptive presidential nominee, and no one challenging for the chair position could indicate he will not face any primary challengers.

It would be good news for the DPP if that turns out to be true. The last presidential primary, when Lai abruptly challenged then-incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), turned into a nasty affair that threatened to tear the party apart.

Lai becoming party chair is also probably good news for the DPP. As shown in the just concluded local elections, Eric Chu (朱立倫) has turned the Kuomintang (KMT) into a formidable election-winning machine.

Like Chu, Lai is wily and knows his way around the ballot box, and if he can keep his own presumptive presidential campaign from distracting him too much, could be just the leader the party needs to take on the KMT. Just resigned party chair Tsai Ing-wen is an accomplished diplomat and technocrat, but suffers from a relative lack of campaign experience, especially at the grassroots local level.

The “god Lai”

The only election Lai has ever lost is his DPP presidential primary challenge against Tsai in 2019. His defenders accuse Tsai of “rigging” or “stealing” the outcome, whereas Tsai’s supporters viewed Lai’s challenge as a “betrayal” and an “ambush.” The whole affair was ugly.

Lai’s unbroken streak includes winning a seat in the now-disbanded National Assembly in 1996 and four straight terms as a legislator, all — in spite of not being a local — representing Tainan. He was so highly regarded that he won election as mayor of Tainan easily in 2010 and won re-election in 2014 with a staggering 72.9% of the vote.

By the time he left office, his national reputation was so high as a popular mayor and anti-“black gold” (corruption) politician that it earned him the nickname the “god Lai” (賴神). While a term in the punching-bag position of premier toned down the “god Lai” talk, he remains in almost all polls (regardless of partisan lean) the second most popular politician in the country, after New Taipei Mayor Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) of the KMT.

By taking on the party chair position, Lai is making it clear he wants to be the one to lead the DPP into the 2024 national elections, with himself almost certainly leading the charge as the party’s presidential nominee. He has some serious challenges ahead, however.

His first task will probably be to restore morale in the party after the disastrous results of the November election. Fortunately for Lai and the DPP, there isn’t anyone better suited to the task than Lai.

In the party he is popular, respected, a member of the biggest faction, New Tide, and has the charisma and experience to get the job done. He almost certainly will succeed.

His second task will probably be to win the party’s nomination, which at this point looks like a certainty — and he might not even be challenged. Then things may get trickier.

The legislator primaries will present him with his first tough challenge. This is when the factions will engage in some serious political knife fighting.

Wrangling factions

This requires some very careful horse-trading, negotiating, and ego-smoothing, while ensuring it doesn’t look like he’s favoring his own New Tide faction. It’s a tricky balancing act that will take serious political and diplomatic skills.

Fortunately for Lai, he has got two advantages coming into that fight. First, Tsai Ing-wen, using her finely-tuned diplomatic skills, was the first to figure out how to tame the factions, meaning Lai should in theory be able to simply carry forward using her formula.

Lai understands Tsai’s formula for balancing the factions well. He was apportioned his position as premier partly to balance out the powerful positions apportioned to members of other factions. Lai very likely has the understanding of the system and the skills to carry it off without too many disgruntled party members bolting and running as independents.

Once these challenges are dealt with, he’s then going to have to tackle winning over the electorate for his party and presumably himself as presidential candidate. He’s going to have to be a strong “hen” (top-of-the-ticket candidate) to lead his legislative slate “chicks” (down-ticket candidates) to victory on election day in January 2024.

Upcoming columns will focus on some serious warning signs for the DPP, including a sharp dropoff in support among voters under the age of 40, and a drop in support for Lai himself in recent months. He’s going to have to shore up the party’s support, all the while fending off the newly formidable KMT under Eric Chu.

We will also look at likely presidential contenders from the other parties. Stay tuned!