TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — At number 7 of its top risks and opportunities in the coming year the Atlantic Council predicted that there is a risk that a "crisis just short of war" will break out over Taiwan.

Last week, the American think tank released its list of "23 risks and opportunities for 2023," said to be compiled by its 16 programs and centers. It explained that for each scenario a "probability" is assigned, with "medium" indicating there are 50/50 odds of the outcome occurring in the coming year.

Taiwan was ranked high on the list at No. 7, with a scenario in which a "crisis just short of war erupts over Taiwan" listed at a position just halfway between "low" and "medium." The Taiwan section's author, David Shullman, Senior Director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, wrote that the risk of a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait "jumped significantly" after China's aggressive response to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan on Aug. 2.

Shullman predicted that a crisis will not occur because of developments in Taiwan or a sudden "bolt from the blue" by Beijing. Rather, he asserted the takeover of the House of Representatives by the new Republican majority could lead to greater "material and rhetorical" backing for Taiwan's defense or independence could agitate China.

The author expressed fears that Beijing's reaction to more overt support for Taiwan by Congress could take the form of a response "well beyond" what was seen after Pelosi's trip. Noting that Beijing previously hurled missiles over Taiwan, held a dress rehearsal for a blockade, and nixed diplomatic dialogues with the U.S., Shullman forecast that regardless of China's response, it would lead to a "new—and more confrontational—normal."

Shullman suggested that China might attempt to launch "retaliatory actions" against Taiwan's outer islands or engage in cyberwarfare against Taiwan's electricity grid. Other possibilities include steps to shock Taiwan's economy or regional supply chains, such as a "true blockade" of Taiwan proper and "generally make a mess of the global economy."

He indicated that it is unlikely that World War III will break out over Taiwan in 2023, but what is more plausible is a "serious Strait standoff short of war that tests US resolve" and elevates the odds of war in the near future. He closed by asserting that any crisis that thrusts Washington and Beijing "further into their corners is dangerous in its own right."