TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China will not invade Taiwan this year because of the economy, according to book author and investment strategist Milton Ezrati, writing for Forbes.

In his article Monday (Jan. 2), Ezrati lays out a long list of economic reasons that suggest now is not the time for China to take Taiwan “by force.” Even so, the writer does cover his back by saying the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is “as ever, inscrutable,” meaning unpredictable.

That said, Ezrati believes an invasion or blockade “would cost China’s already beleaguered economy dearly.”

“To the extent that anyone in Beijing is listening, the economics makes a strong case for the moderation,” he adds.

Ezrati then describes some of the problems that China faces vis-a-vis Taiwan:

• Taiwan has become important to China's economy and has increased buying in China some 87% during the past five years.


• China relies more on Taiwanese products, which have increased some 71% over the past five years.


• China is particularly dependent on buying Taiwan’s electrical machinery and semiconductors.


• If China did mount a blockade, it would hurt itself as much as world trade, since typically half of the world’s container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait in just over six months.

Ezrati concludes by saying that while China’s sovereignty issues may trump logic, China would be better off not trying to invade and “perhaps occasionally make dramatic demonstrations.”