TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — In what she described as an “extremely difficult decision,” President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) on Dec. 27 announced that mandatory military service will be extended to one year and that monthly pay for conscripts will be raised to NT$20,607 (US$670).
Addressing doubters, she insisted that the extension to one year “definitely wouldn’t be a waste of time,” and the longer conscription period would be more practical than before, with the teachers, teaching materials, training locations, and equipment improved and closer to real-life situations.
Into the 1990s, conscription was two or three years, depending on the branch of service, but had been slowly reduced, culminating in only four-month stints as a result of decisions by former President Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and formally implemented under former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). In spite of both presidents being aware of Taiwan’s collapsing demographics, both were in favor of moving towards an all-volunteer military.
That was a bad plan, and worse, it was poorly implemented. The military has been struggling to recruit and falling well below targets, and the conscripts in the four-month program were considered effectively useless for anything other than running errands and doing menial chores.
The Tsai administration’s determination to move forward with this is laudable, necessary, and, fortunately for the administration, popular. However, when talking with people knowledgeable about the subject, or who have done their compulsory military service, there is widespread cynicism that, in the end, the reform will not do much good.
That doesn’t mean that the effort is not worth making, but it needs to be done effectively. While by no means all that needs to be done, here are three key areas to consider.
Women must be conscripted, too
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmaker Fan Yun (范雲) announced plans to propose legislation to include women in the one-year compulsory military service. This is a good idea.
The responsibility for defending Taiwan belongs to everyone, whether on the battlefield or, like grandmothers did in Ukraine, making homemade Molotov Cocktails for the defenders of Kyiv. Bullets don’t care whether a soldier is male or female, nor do the guns the soldiers wield.
Conscripting women underscores this fundamental point and sends a strong message. Everyone is valuable and valued if the worst comes to pass.
It would also roughly double the number of conscripts, which would make Taiwan that much stronger. Additionally, if handled well, the reforms could have the knock-on effect of encouraging more women to join the volunteer regular forces, as they currently make up only about 15% of military personnel.
Many countries include women in their compulsory military service, and effective models are out there on how to implement this. It just takes the will.
Unfortunately, this couldn’t be implemented in 2024, or likely even 2025. There are already widespread concerns about the capacity, capabilities and number of training personnel to handle the influx of men next year.
Bring in the Americans
Following the 2014 invasion of Crimea by Russia, NATO partnered with the Ukrainian military to provide training. Some (though some less so) have perceived the training as an inspired response to the remarkable success Ukraine has had in battling off the invasion that began last February.
Stories abound about how ineffectual training programs in Taiwan are. True, the president is talking a good game about how it will be improved, but there is considerable skepticism that the current culture and programs will be improved significantly in practice.
Unlike local military commanders, Americans have considerable experience in combat. Having life and death experience in the field means that not only have they refined their training, but they understand its importance in the field — and crucially — are not likely to have much patience for poor training practices.
Including Americans in the training program could be just the jolt the institutional culture needs, assuming (and this will require considerable support from the top) they are listened to. Their performance evaluations, for example, will need to be independent.
Having Americans involved in training is also important for building interoperability between the two militaries, which could be critical in case of war. Additionally, the relationships built could be very valuable in a conflict, with both sides knowing who to contact and why, and the trust between them necessary to move quickly and effectively.
Prior to cutting off diplomatic relations in 1979, U.S. training personnel had been stationed in Taiwan. In recent years (it’s a secret how many) small groups from various U.S. special forces have come to Taiwan for training, but they only number in the dozens according to most reports, and they do not stay very long.
Ideally, the U.S. would simply send active duty personnel, which would double in part as a deterrence to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). However, it is unlikely that Washington has the stones necessary in the face of Beijing’s objections.
A more diplomatic move might be to use the “AIT sidestep.” When diplomatic ties were cut and the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) set up as a de-facto embassy, U.S. State Department diplomats would be assigned, but on paper they were working for AIT, not the U.S. government — but as far as their career assessments were concerned it was still considered a diplomatic posting.
That could require an act of Congress to approve, but considering the current bipartisan support for Taiwan, there is a very real possibility that would pass. The more likely obstacle would be the entrenched bureaucracy in Washington that remains allergic to angering the Chinese Communist Party.
A final option is to go for retired U.S. military personnel working through a private firm, either an existing one or one set up specifically focused on Taiwan.
Perseverance, clear and defined goals, and most importantly, oversight
Listening to the president’s speech, it is clear she’s aware that effective, practical and intelligent training geared toward actual combat is necessary. Many military analysts are dubious that this will be carried out effectively.
To ensure that these reforms don’t end up being just vague talk, oversight mechanisms will need to be put in place with clear objectives. The Americans, being independent of the local military culture, could play a crucial role.
For example, anecdotally there are stories of a lack of weapons and ammunition, and of weapons being shipped from place to place, arriving just in time for inspections, then moved off to the next inspection site. No American who has been in combat is going to tolerate this type of game, and will say something.
Taiwan is a wealthy enough country to adequately equip the military, but it needs the will and a culture shift to get it done properly, and oversight to ensure it does get done.
Much of this will cost money, of course. But President Tsai herself campaigned prior to the 2016 election on a platform of increasing Taiwan’s military spending to 3% of GDP.
That’s a campaign promise she’s running out of time to keep. She’s only raised it to 2.4% for 2023.
