TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Japanese think tank simulation found that if the U.S. and Japan became involved in a war between Taiwan and China, Washington and Tokyo could prevent Beijing from invading the country, but at a heavy cost.
Nikkei reported that a tabletop wargame was conducted over four days through Jan. 21 by Japan’s Sasakawa Peace Foundation, involving around 30 participants, including former Japan Self-Defense Force (SDF) officers and Japanese and American academics and researchers. The exercise simulated a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan in 2026.
The simulation had Taiwanese, American, and Japanese forces facing off against China. In it, the People’s Liberation Army set up a command center capable of deploying all air, submarine, and surface vessel capabilities. The U.S. responded by dispatching nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and advanced fighter jets to locations in and around Taiwan.
In the wargame, Japan’s prime minister declared a national state of emergency and let America use SDF bases in addition to civilian airports in Okinawa and Kyushu. The exercise then saw Japan call the invasion an “existential threat” after learning Beijing was planning to attack SDF bases used by American forces, Nikkei said.
Japanese warships and its F-35 fighter jets then take part in missile strikes against Chinese forces. China was eventually beaten by the U.S.-Japan response, with the fighting taking more than two weeks, per the report.
The simulation found Chinese military supplies getting cut off, and the decisive move came after the allies took control of Taiwan airspace.
The wargame found that there would be heavy losses for all parties involved. Taiwan experienced 13,000 dead or wounded troops, and lost 200 warplanes and 18 warships, while the U.S. saw 10,700 troop casualties and lost 400 planes and 19 naval vessels.
Japan saw 2,500 troop casualties and lost 144 fighter jets and 15 warships. Meanwhile, China lost more than 40,000 troops killed or wounded and lost 168 jet fighters, 48 military transport aircraft, and 156 warships, including two aircraft carriers.
The report noted the Sasakawa simulation was based on the military hardware and capabilities possessed by countries today, and that the actual outcome in 2026 could be different if Beijing significantly increases its military power.
