TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — This week, two Australian newspapers, The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, warned the country to prepare for war with China in the next three years.
The report indicates that a conflict involving Taiwan and China is much more likely than most Australian citizens realize. Further, given the country’s alliance with the U.S., it would be very difficult for Australia to avoid involvement in a war.
The independent report, entitled “Red Alert,” was authored by five security analysts and published by the Nine Entertainment media group. The general view of the analysts is that Australia is not ready to be drawn into a war involving China and Taiwan, but that the country should begin preparing with a sense of urgency.
“Our assessment of the risk of war is based on President Xi Jinping’s aggressive stance and rapid military build-up,” the Red Alert report reads. It suggests a three-year time frame because, according to the analysis, “a tipping point” will be reached around 2027, after which “Beijing will have military superiority over the U.S. in the Taiwan Strait.”
The analysts also factor in China’s demographic crisis. They suggest that from Xi’s perspective, there is only a limited window in which China will be capable of pursuing such a large scale military operation. Such an analysis also infers that, if conflict is unavoidable, it is more favorable to the U.S. if war in the Taiwan Strait begins sooner rather than later.
If war does occur, Australian involvement may not have broad support among Australians.
While some dissent is to be expected, on the issue of whether the Australian government would support the U.S. and Taiwan in a conflict, one analyst, Mick Ryan said the decision has already been made. “We have made our choice. If the United States goes to war with Taiwan, we are going to support them one way or the other,” he said.
Australia finds itself in a precarious position, because its greatest trading partner is also the greatest potential threat to its sovereignty. The analysts believe that Canberra would not be able to resist involvement because the consequences of allowing China to conquer Taiwan would imperil the regional and global order, and thereby, Australia’s own livelihood.
“Any attack on Taiwan is neither a marginal matter nor a local one. If successful, it would strike at the heart of global norms that have underpinned international security and prosperity . . . South-East Asia and the Pacific island states could then be dominated by Beijing. Australia’s commercial and security lifelines to the world would operate only at Beijing’s pleasure. Australia would be highly vulnerable to economic coercion, military intrusion or both,” states the report.
The key points of the Red Alert report can be viewed here.