TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The latest polling data from Paraguay shows that if the country held a presidential election today, the candidate campaigning on switching diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China would win.
Main opposition candidate Efrain Alegre, who has said that he will sever ties with Taiwan and switch to recognition of China if elected president on April 30, polled at 38.1%, while Santiago Peña of the current ruling party polled at 36.4%, according to Atlas Intelligence data released on Wednesday (April 5).
While Alegre claimed the results to show “change is coming," the difference between each candidate's numbers are within the poll’s 2% margin of error.
The last two Surveyor Atlas polls have shown Alegre’s numbers to be higher than his opponents by a relatively consistent margin, though it is likely too early to predict the outcome with any confidence. Historical trends would indicate a change of government is unlikely, as the Colorado Party has been in power for all but five of the past 77 years.
Despite this, Paraguay’s current Colorado Party president’s government has been plagued by allegations of corruption, and more importantly for Taiwan’s diplomatic relations, complaints from the soy and beef industries about lack of access to the Chinese market.
"We make a sacrifice for the political support given to Taiwan and on balance, we consider that we receive very little in compensation," Pedro Galli, president of the Rural Association of Paraguay, told Reuters.
A statement on Alegre‘s campaign website says that Paraguay maintains “very important” diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but that if elected, he will ultimately take whatever option is best for Paraguay when deciding the future of his country's relationship with Taiwan.
“The government of Efraín Alegre will weigh this situation carefully, since Paraguay values its ties with Taiwan, but it cannot continue losing the commercial opportunities of the Chinese market or the flow of potential investments,” the statement said.
Unlike Alegre, President Abdo reaffirmed his commitment to Taiwan while on a state visit to the country in February, while the country’s ambassador to Taiwan said the purpose of the trip was to “reaffirm the shared democratic values such as free expression, justice, and democracy.”
In contrast, Financial Times reported in September 2022 that Abdo requested US$1 billion in Taiwanese investment to maintain diplomatic relations, though Abdo later denied that there was any “quid pro quo” for the Paraguay-Taiwan relationship.
Amid the recent diplomatic break with Honduras, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) said that Taiwan refused to "engage in a meaningless contest of dollar diplomacy with China." Her comments followed Taiwan’s foreign minister Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) revelation that Honduran aid requests had resulted in the breaking of ties between the two countries, who said Taiwan did not provide direct “cash assistance."
