TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Vietnamese military analyst has created a map of the projected trajectory of the Chinese rocket that is scheduled to fly over a no-fly zone north of Taiwan.

On Wednesday (April 12), news broke that China was preparing to impose a "no-fly zone" in the airspace north of Taiwan from Sunday to Tuesday (April 16-18), which was later modified to 27 minutes on Sunday, following protests from Taiwan's transportation ministry. Duan Dang correctly predictd that the no-fly zone had been set up for a launch from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center.

China's Fujian Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning on Thursday (April 13) saying that from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on April 16 "there may be falling rocket wreckage" over an area 85 nautical miles (157 km) north of Taiwan in the northern sector of its air defense identification zone (ADIZ). The government's Weixin account "International Rocket Launches" (國際火箭發射) on Thursday said China is going to launch "a Fengyun-3G Weather Satellite" from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in Gansu Province with a Long March 4B rocket.

Also on Thursday, the Taipei Area Control Center (ACC) issued a notice to airmen for the restricted zone north of Taiwan. The notice listed the start of the flight ban as 1:30 p.m. on April 16 and the end time as 1:57 p.m.

NOTAM issued by Taipei ACC. (Taipei ACC screenshot)

Based on the launch location, the type of rocket, and the time intervals given for no-fly zones in China and north of Taiwan, Duan created a map showing the estimated trajectory of the rocket. He then posted it on Twitter:

No-fly zone enforced north of Taiwan due to Long March 4B rocket launch carrying Fengyun-3G Weather Satellite on April 16. pic.twitter.com/0YcL7nGgoS

— Duan Dang (@duandang) April 14, 2023