TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — There are various narratives and plenty of speculation surrounding the recent trips by current President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). Much of it is incorrect or dubious at best.
President Tsai’s trip to the United States and formal diplomatic partners Belize and Guatemala was by far the more successful of the two, though it came with some setbacks. On the eve of her trip, Honduras cut diplomatic ties to Taiwan in favor of China.
There is considerable speculation that the timing was a deliberate move to embarrass the president before her trip. While the switch of diplomatic ties was probably going to happen soon regardless, it is indeed very likely that Tsai’s trip had something to do with the specific timing.
On her first stopover in the US to New York City, Tsai met with various high-ranking members of Congress and received the Hudson Institute’s Global Leader award. She then moved on visit Belize and Guatemala.
Both visits reportedly went well, and the leaders of both countries pledged to stick with Taiwan. One concrete result is that the president of Guatemala will visit Taiwan soon.
Hello Mr. Speaker
On her return trip, she met with House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congress members at the Reagan Library. McCarthy vowed to get delayed arms sales to Taiwan faster, and his support could be important to making that happen.
Meeting McCarthy in California instead of in Taiwan was reportedly at the behest of Taiwan to avoid a repeat of last year’s live-fire military drills surrounding Taiwan by China. It didn’t work. China went ahead with war games again, albeit somewhat smaller this time.
China also responded by announcing sanctions on the Hudson Institute, the Reagan Library and other organizations, in addition to Taiwan’s US representative Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴). China had already slapped the same sanctions on her before.
China also announced that they were going to investigate 2,455 products imported from Taiwan for “fair trade violations.”
The State Department called Tsai’s two visits to the US stopovers and standard policy, which is true. China still complained anyway.
Dueling pro-Taiwan groups and pro-China protestors showed up in both New York and California. The pro-Taiwan wellwishers came to show their support for Taiwan, the pro-China protestors had to be paid to show up.
One trip popular, the other not
Overall, the trip was successful in shoring up relationships and garnered some benefits. Taiwanese viewed the Tsai-McCarthy meeting positively, with 61% supporting it and only 21.8% opposing it.
Ma Ying-jeou’s trip to China wasn’t anywhere nearly as popular, with only 39.2% approving and 43.7% opposing it. The trip didn’t secure anything positive for Taiwan, nor for the Kuomintang (KMT).
There are two narratives about the former president’s trip that are almost certainly false. One is that the KMT was behind the trip.
It is actually highly unlikely that is the case. KMT Chair Eric Chu has assiduously tried to move the party closer to mainstream opinion and change the perception of the party as too close to China.
The problem for Chu is that Ma was representing the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation, not the KMT. Also, as former president, Ma remains very influential in the KMT.
Putting on a brave face
So Chu had no choice but to put on a brave face, make the best of it and hope that Ma wouldn’t say or do anything embarrassing to the KMT. He likely did manage to get some concessions from Ma, however.
Statements by Chu and the KMT about the trip sounded rather defensive. They also sent out a bold graphic to foreign media with the following:
Yes universities, No Beijing
Yes students, No Xi Jinping
Yes academic exchanges, No political dialogue
Yes understanding, No demonization
Yes worship ancestors, No compromising dignity
Ma's trip was not timed to Tsai's
The second narrative is that Ma’s trip was intentionally timed to correspond with Tsai’s US trip. This is almost certainly not the case, though it appears to be a minority opinion among political commentators.
Ma’s trip covered many cities and stops, and he was leading an entourage of 30 students. His foundation said the planning began before the Lunar New Year, and this is consistent when considering the logistics of the trip.
Another key element is the timing of the trip with the Tomb Sweeping Festival. While Ma certainly wanted to send a political message by sweeping the tombs of his ancestors in Hunan, China, it was genuinely important to him personally and entirely within his character.
The big reason it almost certainly wasn’t timed to match Tsai’s journey was because it was totally counterproductive on many levels. Ma’s trip was supposed to attract all the headlines and press attention as the first former Republic of China (ROC) president to visit China since 1949.
It was supposed to be historic and monumental. Tsai’s trip stole his thunder, not the other way around.
Bad for the KMT
Worse for Ma and the KMT, it robbed them of the chance to get concessions from China. After KMT Vice Chair Andrew Hsia’s (夏立言) delegation visited China in February, China announced the lifting of bans on swathes of Taiwanese products.
That was a win-win for both China, which wants the KMT to win in the next elections, and for the KMT’s promotion of itself as the only party that can keep dialogue open with China, produce results and reduce tensions.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) always prioritizes domestic concerns over international ones, but in this case, to both bolster the nationalistic base and to send a message internationally, they felt they had to respond to Tsai’s trip. Hence the live-fire war drills and the “fair trade” announcement.
So no goodies for Ma from his trip, and no goodies for the KMT to use as ammunition in the election campaign. In fact, it made the KMT look toothless and ineffective, undermining the party’s messaging.
Further, the trip seemed almost deliberately planned to undermine Chu’s attempts to distance the KMT from the public’s mind as being too close to China. On that issue at least, Chu was probably pleased about the amount of attention that Tsai’s trip received.
