TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A war between China and Taiwan is not unavoidable, with the result of the 2024 presidential election playing a role, according to former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chairman Richard Bush.

The Brookings Institution China expert gave his views in the book “U.S.-Taiwan Relations: Will China’s Challenge Lead to a Crisis?,” written with Ryan Hass of the same institution, and with Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund in the United States.

A conflict in the Taiwan Strait was not preordained, the authors said, with the risk of war relatively low as Taiwan’s leaders were wise and unlikely to take provocative actions, CNA reported. The authors emphasized the importance of respecting and understanding the hopes and fears of the country’s 23 million people.

The aim of U.S. policy was to maintain a credible deterrence, as China might be tempted to use force if it assumed the cost or risks of a military attack were low, according to Hass. He believed that Beijing would still prefer to use peaceful means to force Taiwan onto the path of unification, rather than unleash a war which would likely to turn into a global disaster.