TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The leading U.S. military commander in the Indo-Pacific has pushed back against speculating on a timeline for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the second high level official from a Western country to do so in as many days.
Admiral John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific command said on Tuesday (April 18) that he does not endorse colleagues and military leaders who make predictions about a war between Taiwan and China. He said the U.S. defense department and industry need to focus on reducing the chance of a conflict, per the Financial Times.
“For me, it doesn’t matter what the timeline is … I’m responsible to prevent this conflict today and if deterrence were to fail, to be able to fight and win,” said Aquilino.
Prominent U.S. military officials have joined media speculation in suggesting timelines for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, though experts and military leaders have largely maintained that China does not want conflict over Taiwan, and war is not inevitable or imminent. What is generally accepted, however, is that Chinese military capability is growing.
The Financial Times reported sources familiar with the matter who said that Pentagon leadership had communicated to senior officials that this kind of speculation was inappropriate. The message from the U.S.'s top intelligence agency was reportedly in response to U.S. Air Force General Michael Minihan, who said in February that he had a "gut feeling" the U.S. would engage China in an armed conflict over Taiwan within the next two years.
Admiral Aquilino’s comments follow remarks from Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, who said on Tuesday that engaging in speculation over potential scenarios for Taiwan is “the most dangerous of parlour games.”
"There is much frenzied discussion in political and media circles over timelines and scenarios when it comes to Taiwan,” and “anyone in positions like mine who feels an urge to add to that discussion should resist the temptation," Wong said.
The two senior officials’ remarks follow recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. They were conducted in response to President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent trip to the U.S., during which she met with U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
