TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) —By far, the most well-known, most cited, and most controversial polls on Taiwan are the three held biannually by the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University (NCCU): Taiwanese/ Chinese identity, Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland, and Party Preferences. The identity and party preferences polls have been conducted since June 1992, and the independence vs. unification poll since December 1994.
These are fantastic polls I eagerly await. They are also the most abused, misused, misunderstood, and misinterpreted legitimate polls I have ever encountered, anywhere.
The poll with the most controversy is the independence vs. unification poll. Respondents are given six options: ‘unification as soon as possible,' ‘maintain status quo, move toward unification,’ ‘maintain status quo, decide at a later date,’ ‘maintain status quo indefinitely,’ ‘maintain status quo, move toward independence,’ ‘independence as soon as possible,’ and there is an additional ‘non response’ entry.
Many of my fellow pan-green analysts and commentators in Taiwan hate this poll and wish it would be discontinued. They would prefer other polls, such as the semi-regular ones by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF).
NCCU paints Taiwan as more “pro-independence”
The TPOF poll offers only four options: ‘Taiwan independence,’ ‘cross-Strait unification,’ ‘maintain current situation,’ and ‘I don’t know.’ The irony is that the NCCU poll makes a far stronger case that Taiwanese prefer independence than the TPOF poll.
The latest TPOF poll released in February showed 44% supported independence, 24% were in favor of maintaining the current situation, 12.3% wanted cross-Strait unification, and 19.7% did not know what they wanted. Since Taiwan is independent currently, albeit under the name 'Republic of China,' those who support the status quo or maintaining the current situation are supporting Taiwan’s continued independence.
Therefore, according to the TPOF poll, a combined total of 68% support Taiwan’s continued independence, 12.3% want to be annexed to China, and 19.7% do not know. In the NCCU poll of the aggregated July and December 2022 results, the same total numbers are calculated to reveal 92.8% want Taiwan’s continued independence in one form or another, 6% did not respond, and 1.2% want to be annexed to China.
Even if the NCCU poll category ‘status quo, move toward unification’ is merged with ‘unification,' it still works out to only 6.8%, or nearly half what the supposedly pan-green TPOF shows. However, merging those two categories is dubious because ‘move toward unification’ does not indicate any timeline, and some of those people are likely thinking in the long term or with pre-conditions such as ‘when China becomes a democracy.’
NCCU poll is superior
The NCCU poll is superior on many levels. It is organized by academics who rely on data, and their reputations rely on that data being accurate.
Some have insinuated that NCCU may have intentionally structured the poll with so many options in order to create the impression that support for independence is lower than it is. It is true that NCCU was a university established to train KMT cadres, including in political warfare.
However, I really do not believe that is what is happening. Just as it slices up support for independence, it does the same for unification, which is the opposite of what the KMT would want.
True, it does use the term “mainland” instead of China, but at the time the poll was created everyone used that term, including myself. In the context of the era, that was not considered a political statement by most people.
Additionally, the superb Nathan Batto, Associate Research Fellow at the Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica and Jointly Appointed Associate Research Fellow at the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, has been associated with the polls since 1995. He would never have associated himself if the data collection was anything but accurate and unbiased.
Academics need nuanced data
Academics also value nuanced data for their research, so it makes sense they would offer more categories. By their nature, polls are blunt instruments that can not encapsulate the complexity of human opinions, but by analyzing and cross-checking the raw data on all three polls, interesting analysis can be drawn. Unfortunately, they require filling out an application to get access to that raw data, and it appears it is only available to academics, though I may try in July.
Also, there is a huge disparity between the NCCU ‘non response’ result and the TPOF ‘don’t know’ result, which is over three times higher. By offering more options, the respondents are more likely to find a category that is closer to how they really feel than with the simplistic options in the TPOF poll.
They also surveyed over 12,000 people, compared to around 1000 at TPOF, ensuring a much higher degree of accuracy. Moreover, we must consider the motives of the two polls: NCCU is creating data for academic research, while TPOF is creating polls to feed the news cycle, and get their boss on the television talk shows.
The NCCU polls are undoubtedly a much better product. So why all the controversy, especially over the independence vs. unification poll?
TPOF helps fuel disinformation, misinformation
The TPOF independence vs. unification poll is often used to spread disinformation and misinformation. This is a legitimate problem.
Chinese ultra-ethnonationalist ‘little pinks' and ‘wumaos’ hired to swamp social media with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) talking points and the CCP’s United Front Work Department (UFWD) propagandists have often seized narrowly on the ‘independence as soon as possible’ number to spread disinformation, such as ‘Only 4.6% of Taiwanese support independence! The majority of Taiwanese want to rejoin the motherland!’
In addition, sometimes sloppy, math-challenged journalists misinterpret or misuse the numbers, creating misinformation in the process. Some have even assumed that Taiwanese are happy with the status quo and current situation, though since China recently began increasing its military intimidation, I have not met anyone making that mistake. Even the worst journalist realizes now that support for the status quo is support for remaining freedom and independence while not getting bombed into the stone age.
NCCU polls as force for good
While there are problems, I would counter the critics with two points. First, only the not-very-bright CCP propagandists use this poll and are not likely to be the very effective ones.
By referencing it, they are actively directing people to actually look at it, and alongside it, the identity and party polls. Together they paint a picture of a free society, a thriving democracy, and a nation absolutely not interested in being annexed by China. A propaganda's own goal.
Second, while it used to be that the journalists covering Taiwan were often sloppy, ignorant, and based in China, these days most of them are actually based in Taiwan. Additionally, as Taiwan has become a hotter topic, the caliber of the journalists covering Taiwan has improved significantly.
In the hands of the more informed journalists covering Taiwan today, these polls are useful and enlightening. No longer based in China, they are more likely to understand what the polls actually mean, and not view them through a Beijing-based lens.
There is a problem with older NCCU polls, however, that I do concur with. That is the 1992 problem, which we will look into in the next column.
