TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — New Taipei Mayor and Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) faced a series of setbacks this week that threatened his campaign and his party's unity.
On Sunday, a protest over a kindergarten in New Taipei City giving drugs to children without parental consent drew international attention and criticism. The police were slow to investigate, sparking public outrage.
Initially, three parents reported to police that the kindergarten gave their children some sort of drug that made them irritable and led to self-harming behavior. It wasn’t until about three weeks later, after more than a dozen parents had come forward, that the New Taipei police decided to investigate. Hence the outrage.
The protest was the latest blow to Hou's image as a caring mayor who prioritizes children's safety. He had already faced scrutiny over the "En En case" last year, when a child died after waiting 81 minutes for an ambulance.
Leaked audio showed total confusion on the side of the emergency response team, but Hou never apologized for the failure on the part of the city. The majority of New Taipei residents believed there was negligence at the time, though only a minority said it impacted their view of the mayor, and he went on to win in a landslide months later.
If it was a one-off many voters might be forgiving, but this is a second case. That he is now associated with being uncaring of children’s safety must cause Hou personal anguish as this is an issue almost certainly dear to his heart. He lost his only son in a tragic kindergarten bus fire that killed 23 and injured nine more.
Monday to Wednesday blues
Monday (June 19) should have been a good day for Hou as he finally answered critics who pointed out he had not proposed any concrete vision for the nation. He spoke at National Taiwan University (NTU) and tried to present his platform on four critical issues: Housing, energy, defense and U.S. ties.
However, his proposals were overshadowed by controversies. Some students accused the KMT lawmaker who hosted the event of filtering their questions and stealing the spotlight. One student asked Hou about being replaced by Foxconn founder Terry Gou (郭台銘), who lost to Hou in the KMT primary.
On Tuesday (June 20), the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) claimed that Hou had plagiarized their presidential candidate Ko Wen-je's (柯文哲) defense platform. Hou dismissed the accusation as ridiculous.
On Wednesday (June 21), in response to repeated criticism that he had failed to re-unite the party by reaching out to Terry Gou, his opponent in the KMT presidential candidacy process. Hou said that he had spoken with Gou several times and thanked him for setting up a think tank to help KMT legislative candidates. He said he shared the same goals and ideals as Gou, but did not comment on meeting him in person.
My jaw dropped! Didn’t Hou realize just how masterfully Gou had played him?
However, Gou did not offer any explicit support for Hou or his campaign. Gou has been meeting with local KMT politicians and keeping himself relevant in the race. He has also hinted at running as an independent candidate if Hou is replaced.
Terry Gou stays relevant
For example, on Wednesday he met with all the top KMT politicians in Nantou, where the Nantou County Council speaker once again publicly urged Gou to run for president. Those are the kind of people who run the ground war for the party’s candidates in their localities, and Hou has not been meeting with them — while Gou has.
Over the last week there has been a surge in KMT legislative candidates complaining about Hou's lack of support. Many are now openly hoping to get the more popular Ko Wen-je’s support instead.
It’s gotten so bad that some party Central Standing Committee members are mulling putting forward a rule change that would prohibit campaigning with someone from another party, or at least get permission from the local party head.
With that backdrop in mind, Gou is clearly courting their support. No doubt many of those legislative candidates are salivating at what the billionaire could provide their campaigns. Gou wants them on the “dump Hou” bandwagon.
Also, notice that he did not give Hou any outright support, just a few chats on the phone. No meeting, no campaigning together, nothing. Gou has totally outmaneuvered Hou and made himself look like the good guy.
Trolls from the polls
Hou's announcement came as a new poll by the Broadcasting Corporation of China (pollBCC), a pan-blue media outlet, showed that after six straight polls showing Hou last in the three-way presidential race, a seventh dropped and the dam broke. It indicated he was once again trailing the frontrunners by a large margin and with only a miserable 17.93% support.
This triggered comparisons with Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), the KMT's presidential candidate in 2015. She was dumped by the party after her polls fell below 15%.
Worse for Hou, many of the headlines included references to “replace Hung” with “replace Hou,” openly compared their predicaments, and offered to reveal odds on Hou being dumped. KMT lawmaker Jessica Chen (陳玉珍) called for the party to enact an “anti-brick clause” at the party conference on July 23, stipulating that any presidential candidate that falls below 15% must automatically be sacked.
Eric Chu (朱立倫) must be feeling a deep pit of dread in his stomach. He was the party chair in 2015, and now here he is again today: Faced with the possibility of having overseen the two worst candidates in the party’s history, and having to sack both. The worst possible legacy if it comes to pass this time.
Previously, I said while it was tough for Hou he still had seven months to turn it around. In just the four days from Sunday to Wednesday, his campaign has gone from collapsing to flirting with unsalvagable.
He is going to have to act decisively to turn things around. However, according to reporting by Mirror Media, citing insiders, his campaign is divided into two warring camps that both think they are in charge, and no one is bringing the infighting under control.
One camp wants him to appeal to moderate voters and one wants him to court the deep blues. Hou seems to be indecisive and distracted by the infighting.
Hou seems to be distracted, his followers divided, and dithering on what to do. I no longer think he has seven months, he has got to turn things around by the party conference one month from now, or he will never see election day.
