TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Retired Chief of General Staff Lee Hsi-min (李喜明) took the stage on Monday (July 10) at 23 Comedy Club on Linsen North Road in Taipei.
Lee wasn’t there to tell jokes—that would come later at an open mic comedy event hosted by the venue. Instead, he was businesslike in his address to a crowd of 50 plus journalists representing local and foreign media.
His subject was Taiwan-China relations, and more specifically, "Overall Defense Concept," the title of his September 2022 book. A thumbnail sketch of the tome covers Lee’s belief that China’s military threat is imminent, something civilians, politicians, and even the military brass may have underestimated.
Lee is best known for the "porcupine" national defense strategy, which he implemented as Chief of General Staff from 2017 to 2019. Here, budget priority was given to coastal defense through the purchase of anti-air, anti-tank, and anti-ship weapons, as well as drones.
In his retirement from active service, Lee has not backed off his belief that China poses an imminent threat. To illustrate his point, Lee loaded a PowerPoint slide that displayed China’s war-like rhetoric. In another slide, Lee showed the landing zone for Chinese missile exercises in 1996, later juxtaposing it against daily air incursions made by Chinese fighter jets and ships.
"It’s obvious they are getting closer and closer," he commented.
In yet another slide, Lee showed a survey where the public was asked to evaluate China’s threat and a potential time frame for cross-strait hostilities, with the majority selecting 2027–2035. To prevent such an incursion, Lee believes Taiwan needs either "credible assurance" or a "threat" of reprisal.
Lee warns of more threats Taiwan could face. (Taiwan News, Sean Scanlan photo)
"We can’t be afraid. We need three things. First, a well-trained military. Secondly, a willingness to defend Taiwan. Thirdly, a resilient society. We can’t back down."
Lee added there are alternatives to full-scale invasion, such as gray zone actions, which are just below the threshold of all-out war. This includes incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), political warfare, and disinformation.
"We simply do not have enough resources to defend against China. Because of this, we have to be smart about how we allocate our budget.
"We shouldn’t commission huge new destroyers and such ships, as we cannot use traditional armaments. I have thought about this for a long time, and we need a more flexible overall defense concept."
Lee said Taiwan should learn from the Russian-Ukraine war and how an inability to control the Black Sea has cost both sides. "Military is all about control—controlling the air, controlling the sea, and controlling the land. If we can’t control these areas, we will lose. So, in a sense, this will be difficult for us."
"We have all seen the Ukraine war and the paradigm shift. Unfortunately, the military may be adapting too slowly, as we need to develop a new culture. For example, everyone wants to acquire F-16s, but if runways are bombed, they cannot take off, and our Air Force will be destroyed."
Lee said it will be difficult for Taiwan to defend itself from China, but there is hope the U.S. will offer some protection.
"Having Taiwan survive definitely helps the U.S. They definitely want to see this, but how much they will support is another question. When Russia took parts of Ukraine in the beginning, no one said anything."
After concluding his remarks with an exhortation for journalists to continue reporting on Taiwan-China tensions, Lee answered questions. In private, away from the stage, Lee spoke further about Taiwan’s defensive strategy and the best way to protect against Chinese threats.
"I don’t support the porcupine defense theory any more. I actually believe in Mohammed Ali’s boxing strategy, 'Float like a butterfly and sting like a bee,' or attacking them from a position that they never expected."
