TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark A. Milley said in a CNN interview on Monday (Sept. 18) that if China attempts to capture Taiwan, not only will the threshold for success be extremely high, but it will also be a "grave strategic mistake."
CNN host Fareed Zakaria began the topic by asserting that the most likely flashpoint between the U.S. and China is Taiwan. He then cited the author Christian Brose from the book "The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare" as observing that of the many war games on a conflict over Taiwan conducted by the Pentagon, the U.S. has almost never won and asked Milley if it is possible for the U.S. to repel a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Milley replied: "It's entirely possible." He said that he had conducted a "massive amount" of wargames over the course of his 44-year career and that such exercises are designed for training purposes and are usually experimental in nature, so the results should be interpreted with caution.
He emphasized that the U.S. seeks a "peaceful outcome" between Taiwan and China. However from a military perspective, "I think China would make a grave strategic mistake if they attempted to attack Taiwan, to seize the island of Taiwan," warned Milley.
Milley said China has other options to achieve its goals, but the use of force to conquer Taiwan "is a very, very high bar." He explained that it is the most complex of military operations and, "Frankly, the Chinese military capability is probably not there right this second to do that."
According to Milley, Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) has openly challenged China's army, air force, and navy to achieve the capability of successfully invading Taiwan by 2027. He said that Xi had accelerated the goal from the 2030s to 2027, but cautioned that it does not necessarily mean that Xi has decided to launch the invasion, but "that means that he wants them to have the capability to do it."
The Joint Chiefs of Staff head said that this 2027 timeline means that China does not yet have the capability to seize Taiwan "this second, at least in his (Xi's) mind."