TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s exports started a recovery in September, making the International Monetary Fund (IMF) prediction of 0.8% growth for the country’s economy in 2023 unlikely, the head of the government’s budget agency said Wednesday (Oct. 11).

The global organization on Tuesday (Oct. 10) cut its forecast for Taiwan’s gross domestic product (GDP) to 0.8% from a prediction of 2.1% made in April. While several think tanks in Taiwan have gradually cut their forecasts too, they still expect GDP growth of more than 1% with an improvement in the final quarter.

Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) Minister Chu Tzer-ming (朱澤民) told lawmakers Wednesday he would consider the IMF analysis, but did not necessarily share its pessimism. His department will issue a new GDP forecast in November, CNA reported.

Early data indicated that Taiwan’s exports had begun a recovery in September, Chu said. He added this would likely be the beginning of a trend continuing to the end of the year and causing the downward move for the GDP to end.

The minister said the DGBAS would also pay close attention to the evolution of the consumer price index (CPI). The prices of fruit and vegetables had surged due to typhoons, while energy prices were peaking currently due to the Hamas-Israel conflict, according to Chu. In its report, the IMF put Taiwan’s inflation for 2023 at 2.1%, lower than the global average of 6.9%.