TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A second lieutenant in the United States Marine Corps (USMC), Hunter Keely, called for a battalion of U.S. marines to be stationed in Taiwan in an article published online by the U.S. Naval Institute on Friday (Oct. 20).

Keeley referred to a potential garrison of 800 or more marines as a “Taipei Tripwire.” He suggested that such a deployment of U.S. marines would serve as an effective deterrent to any military campaign being envisioned by military planners in Beijing.

In the publication of the U.S. Naval Institute, Keeley compared such a deployment to the “Berlin Brigade” of U.S. soldiers that effectively deterred conflict with the Soviet Union in Germany throughout the course of the Cold War.

At this moment in time, such decisive military planning to strengthen the defensive posture of Taiwan and to maintain regional stability is a “moral imperative” for the U.S., says Keeley.

The second lieutenant said that “doubts persist” as to what the U.S. and its allies would do if Beijing decided to launch an invasion of Taiwan, especially given the possibility of “nuclear escalation” and the persistent economic entanglement between the U.S. and China.

The U.S. ability to influence China’s action via economic engagement appears to be decreasing, while China’s willingness to test the limits of the U.S.’ “strategic ambiguity” appears to increase, said Keeley.

In order to shore up U.S. credibility to its allies in the region and Washington’s commitment to defending its own democratic principles, “a new strategy is needed,” Keeley said. Although the sudden deployment of a marine battalion in Taipei might risk immediate escalation, Keeley argued that inaction would be far more dangerous.

With reference to four leading theories of why the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was able to escalate into war, Keeley analyzed how a “Taipei Tripwire” of U.S. marines would impact Beijing’s calculus towards conflict with Taiwan.

In each case, Keeley said, a significant presence of marines in Taiwan would substantially increase potential risks for Xi Jinping (習近平) and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in an attack on Taiwan, while making alternative courses of action for engagement far more preferable.

In response to observations that such a deployment would be seen as a material escalation by the U.S., Keeley suggested that the current global geopolitical situation provides ample opportunity for such a deployment to be accomplished peacefully and explained in a diplomatic manner.

Since a small force of U.S. marines is already in Taiwan to protect U.S. diplomats, the garrison could be expanded as a proportional response to China’s increased military activity around Taiwan, or to the PLA’s covert military operations in the South China Sea or other areas.