TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — There are two interesting developments worth keeping an eye on with the polls this month.
The first is the increasing movement in public opinion in more recent polls. Since this survey covers results from the last 15 days, it includes an outsize number of polls taken in late November after the candidates formally registered.
However, taking polls from only the last ten days a more dramatic picture appears. Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) rises sharply to 38.06%, Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) is up modestly at 31.27%, and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) drops to 18.48%.
There are indications in data released by CNET that there are major disparities in results between cell phone polling and landline polling when it comes to Ko and Hou, but not so much when it comes to Lai. This is not too surprising, Ko's base is young and Hou's older.
Surveys not conducted are the ones done by the parties themselves because they are often intentionally manipulated or biased to favor their interests. The TPP released a poll showing Ko in second at only 2.3% behind Lai, and the KMT released a poll suggesting Hou was second and only 0.2% behind Lai.
This is a weighted average of surveys released over the last 15 days. For more information about how individual polls are weighted, click here. (Taiwan News graphic)
