TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Recent polls suggest that the Kuomintang (KMT) is losing its electoral advantage in the traditionally blue counties of Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli.

The KMT has maintained strong support among Hakka as well as Indigenous voters in these regions, however recent polling indicates that may be changing, reported UDN. The two primary reasons identified for this shift are the increase in young voters and the influence of the Taiwan People’s Party, also termed the Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) or third-party effect.

Prior to the previous presidential election, and over the past four years, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) also worked hard to court Hakka voters, and her efforts appear to have been effective.

According to a recent TVBS poll, the KMT still commands a lead in these three counties. However, support for Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) fell from 37% to 32% in the region following his registration with the Central Election Commission with Jaw Shaw-kang (趙少康) as his running mate in late November.

In contrast, support for both Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and Ko Wen-je increased in the same period. Support for Lai increased from 25% to 28%, while Ko’s support increased by 23% to 30%.

Ko was born in Hsinchu, and in the 2022 municipal election in Hsinchu City, his party’s candidate, Ann Kao (高虹安) was elected to the office of mayor. Recent polling seems to confirm that the TPP has been successful in organizing voter support in the region.

The UDN report suggested the KMT is concerned about voter turnout in these three counties, particularly flagging support among Hakka communities. However, as with other regions of Taiwan, the KMT must also be worried about the increasing number of young voters turning away from the blue camp.

According to the poll released by TVBS on Dec. 13, Lai is still leading nationally with 36% of voter support, with Hou trailing by only 4 points at 32%. Meanwhile, Ko measured 22%.