TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Both Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德) and the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) have shifted their positions on China, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chair Richard Bush wrote in a commentary Monday (Dec. 18).

In a piece for the Brookings Institution, the veteran Asia expert rejected the theory that if Lai won the Jan. 13, 2024 election, he would move Taiwan toward de jure independence, triggering a war with China. The DPP candidate has shifted toward President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) emphasis on defending the status quo, Bush said.

Lai will not bow to pressure from China, but neither will he provoke Beijing just because he can count on support from the United States. China also knows it is not ready for a war against Taiwan.

Beijing’s lowest-risk approach would be to continue its current campaign by combining displays of military force with other forms of intimidation. There are signs that the measures targeting the confidence of the people of Taiwan are gradually working, according to Bush.

The former AIT chair doubted a victory by KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) would lead to a return of friendly ties between Taiwan and China. Beijing’s behavior in Hong Kong and shifts in Taiwan public opinion had made the KMT more cautious toward China, so it was unclear how far relations would improve, Bush said.