TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The year 2024 will be the biggest election year in history, as 64 countries, including Taiwan, the United States, Russia, India, and Mexico, will hold national elections.
First up, Taiwan will choose its next president on Jan. 13, 2024, as it faces growing threats from China. President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is stepping down after a maximum two terms, and Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) hopes to carry on the efforts of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Although Lai is leading the latest poll at 40%, the main opposition party, the Kuomintang's (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) is at 29% support, while the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)’s candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) is at 19%. All three leaders have sought to convey that their party can best ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.
However, China is making efforts to influence the election, as Beijing hopes to see the DPP fall from power, as it considers them “separatists” and ceased official contact with Taiwan after Tsai took office in 2016. Lai has rejected suggestions that he would seek Taiwan’s independence, instead advocating for the status quo, meaning he would pursue no formal change to what he considers an already independent Republic of China (ROC).
The KMT, although arguably the most amenable to Beijing, has sought to shake off its reputation of being too friendly with China's CCP. KMT International Relations Director Alexander Huang said, “We are under a great military threat [from China]... Our position is deterrence without provocation: assurance without appeasement.” The party has tried to frame votes for the KMT as votes for peace over war.
Aside from China, Taiwanese voters are also concerned about important domestic issues, including the cost of living, rising housing prices, energy, education, and its aging population.
Next, the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 is seemingly heading towards a rematch between Democratic President Joe Biden and former Republican President Donald Trump. Biden is struggling to convince voters he can serve another four years, amid concerns about his age and poor approval ratings.
Trump, despite facing more than 90 criminal charges, including an indictment for attempting to overturn the 2020 election, is leading at 61% as the Republican frontrunner, according to the latest Ipsos poll. The Economist called him “the biggest danger to the world in 2024” if he manages to secure a second term.
Russia’s presidential election will take place March 15-17, and President Vladimir Putin is running for reelection. Putin is expected to face only token opposition, which could extend his power until at least 2030.
India, the world’s largest democracy, will hold its elections between April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is running for a third five-year term.
Mexico will elect a new president on June 2. For the first time in its history, the two leading candidates are women, former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and former senator Xóchitl Gálvez.
In the United Kingdom, the ruling Conservative Party is bound by law to call a new election in 2024, with Jan. 28, 2025 as the latest possible date for the next parliamentary elections. However, with very low support for the ruling party, the Tories may seek to delay calling the election in hopes they can improve support among voters and fend off challenges by the opposition Labour Party. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged to hold an election in 2024, and Labour is widely expected to retake power once the election is called.
Other elections to keep an eye on in 2024 include Indonesia, Pakistan, the European Union, Iran, South Africa, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Taiwan-allies Palau and Tuvalu.