TAICHUNG (Taiwan News) — Unlike previous versions of this poll of polls, it is not separated by a five-day interval, but rather only three days due to the government-mandated polling blackout that starts Wednesday (Jan. 3). 

There have been some interesting movements since Christmas Day. Previously Taiwan People's Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) had been cratering somewhat and Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih (侯友宜) had closed the gap on frontrunner Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-te (賴清德).

This had led to speculation that some supporters of Ko might switch their vote and strategically vote for either Hou or Lai to increase the chances that their second favorite candidate might win. That would have thrown the race wide open, especially if more went for Hou than Lai.

The opposite then happened, and it appears that Ko has siphoned off some support from the Hou camp. 

Certain types of polls, especially those using cell phones, digital methods or even street polling, tend to show Ko doing much better, or even in second place. Since Ko supporters lean heavily on social media for their news, the Ko camp has done a good job disseminating the message that he is the one challenging Lai, not Hou.

Traditional polling favors Lai and Hou. It will be interesting to see which types of polling are more accurate come election day on Jan. 13.

Of the 14 polls included, though all have Lai in first place, seven have Hou trailing Lai by three or slightly more than three points, suggesting Hou is competitive. However, three have Lai leading Hou by over 10 points, including the respected Formosa poll, which has Lai ahead by 11.1%

Three polls have Ko ahead of Hou and in second place, several have him narrowly behind Hou, but three have Hou leading Ko by eight points or more. One poll not only has Ko in second place, but only one point behind Lai, which if correct would mean he is highly competitive, though the other 13 polls do not agree.

For more information about how individual polls are weighted, click here. (Taiwan News graphic)