TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Heading into 2024, the year is set to be filled with important events in areas of politics, the environment, and culture that will shape the next several years.
U.S. Election
The year 2024 is the biggest election year in history, as voters in 64 countries will take to the polls. Perhaps the most consequential is the U.S. presidential election in November, where people around the world will be anxiously watching if a Biden-Trump rematch unfolds.
Biden, who is struggling to attract voters amid concerns about his age, has been stressing that “democracy is at risk.” Trump, who faces 91 criminal charges, including an indictment for plotting to overturn the 2020 election and inciting the deadly Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol, has been named by the Economist “the biggest danger to the world in 2024.”
Key issues to shape the debate include gun control, abortion, immigration, the economy, climate change, race, LGBTQ rights, and foreign policy. Nevertheless, an AP-NORC poll showed few Americans want a Biden-Trump rematch and yearn for a fresh face.
More elections to track: Taiwan, U.K., Mexico, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the European Union, Russia, Indonesia, Iran, South Africa, Venezuela, Ghana, Sri Lanka, Senegal, and Taiwan-allies Palau and Tuvalu, and more.
Gaza
Refusing calls for a ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel’s offensive in Gaza will last “for many more months,” following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. This comes as the Palestinian death toll surpasses 22,000, with more than 56,000 injured and 85% of the population displaced, most without access to food and water, per the U.N. relief agency.
The U.S. has provided Israel with resolute military support, but the two allies disagree over Gaza's future. Biden believes in a two-state solution, along with major powers such as China and Russia, which have advocated that Gaza should join the West Bank in being run by a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority. Netanyahu has rejected these ideas.
Climate change and COP29
Azerbaijan is poised to host COP29, and the top agenda item will likely be promoting the transition away from fossil fuels, which was agreed upon at COP28 but marred by insufficient funding, loopholes, and inequities between rich and developing countries.
The 2024 elections will be critical in determining if countries meet their climate targets in the coming years. In the U.S., the world’s second biggest polluter, climate policy was a top priority for the Biden administration, with the largest climate bill in U.S. history being passed in 2022. However, if Republicans win the November elections, climate action could suffer, with activists weary of a possible return of a Trump administration, which in 2017 reversed over 100 environmental regulations.
On the bright side, renewable energy technologies, such as wind and solar are on the rise, with 118 governments at COP28 pledging to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Emissions in the U.S. and European Union fell in 2023, as clean energy policies were stepped up, in part to reduce reliance on Russian energy.
Despite China’s increased levels of pollution, which coincided with the end of its “zero-COVID” policy in 2023, the country is becoming a leader in renewables, with its solar capacity now more than half the worldwide total. However, some of the world’s biggest oil producers said oil demand and emissions show no sign of falling.
Ukraine
It has been 20 months since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Although the international community initially rallied around Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, support among Western countries wavered as Russia and Ukraine entered a stalemate in 2023.
Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive failed to produce a breakthrough, and Russian President Vladimir Putin vowed to increase attacks in 2024. The amount of military support Ukraine receives from the U.S. and its allies could make or break its war efforts. With both Ukraine and Russia still heavily invested in the conflict, it is unlikely there will be any negotiations or a ceasefire in 2024.
Paris Olympics
The Olympics will run from July 26 to Aug. 11, and the Paralympics will start on Aug. 28. Paris is striving for sustainability, hoping to reduce the event’s massive carbon footprint by half compared to London 2012. Considering the potential for terrorist attacks, France also passed legislation that allows for new, enhanced security measures, including AI-controlled video surveillance.
However, not all countries will be allowed to join the games. Russia and its ally Belarus will only be permitted to participate as neutral athletes due to the Ukraine war, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) said. In 2022, the IOC also banned Guatemala following its failure to solve a legal dispute.
Artificial intelligence
MIT Technology Review compiled four trends to follow in 2024: chatbots like ChatGPT that will get more customizable; a second wave of generative AI that will move from producing photorealistic images to videos; AI-generated fake news; and robots that multitask.
With a multitude of elections approaching, voters must be more vigilant of AI-generated disinformation and deepfakes, which create convincing fake images and videos of politicians or events that influence opinion. To tackle misinformation, the European Union drafted the world’s first comprehensive AI Act in 2023, but regulation must keep pace with technology.
U.S.-China relations
Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden met in San Francisco in November 2023, after the two leaders went without speaking for a year. The meeting was a success in the sense that the purpose was to reestablish communication.
In terms of benchmarks for 2024, progress can be assessed on minor agreements such as the military, fentanyl, and AI. Moreover, it will depend on whether either side makes any significant move concerning Taiwan, to which Xi called reunification “inevitable” during his 2024 New Year’s address.
The U.S. and China also exert influence over critical issues including the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, and countries such as North Korea.
Africa
The number of Africans forcibly displaced due to conflict rose to over 40 million people over the past year. Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria, and Burkina Faso are the five countries that saw the biggest increases in displaced people, and climate-linked forced displacement is up too.