TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — An amphibious assault by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Taiwan would be a worst-case scenario, Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) analyst Ou Hsi-fu (歐錫富) said in a recent INDSR report on China’s amphibious capabilities.

However, such a plan would be extremely challenging given the 100-kilometer-wide Taiwan Strait and China’s lack of experience in amphibious operations, Ou said. Additionally, Taiwan's active deployment of asymmetric capabilities like anti-ship and air defense systems poses considerable risks to the PLA, Ou said.

Furthermore, Taiwan's geographic landscape is not conducive to amphibious operations, the analyst said. There are only around 20 beaches in northern and western Taiwan that are suitable for landing.

Once PLA forces landed, they would immediately face mountainous terrain, hills, and urban areas, hindering large-scale movement of mechanized forces, he said. Taiwan's east coast cliffs and west coast shallows serve as natural barriers, he added.

PLA airborne units and air assault brigades have a transport capacity of approximately 12,000 personnel at once, Ou said. Meanwhile, the PLA's amphibious fleet could potentially transport around 24,000 troops and 900 amphibious armored vehicles. Its amphibious composite brigade could transport at least 16,000 troops or 400 amphibious armored vehicles, he said.

Ou stressed that if the PLA decided on an amphibious assault, their plan would likely involve paralyzing Taiwan's command and control systems using aerial and missile capabilities. Therefore, safeguarding critical infrastructure, preserving combat capabilities, and decentralized command should be Taiwan's primary defense resilience objectives, he said.

The INDSR report comes amid China’s hybrid war against Taiwan. In an interview with Le Monde last week, Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said that Beijing employs misinformation, cyberattacks, infiltration, and economic pressure as tactics to undermine Taiwan.

He described the security situation in the Taiwan Strait as not good, as seen by the increasing military threat posed by China in the past two years.