TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Only one country in the world openly and consistently threatens to wipe Taiwan off the face of the map, and this is the nation former President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) thinks Taiwan should trust.
In a Deutsche Welle (DW) interview on Wednesday (Jan. 10), Ma was asked about Taiwan-China relations, deterrence, U.S. intervention during a conflict, whether Taipei could work with and trust Xi Jinping (習近平), and unification, among other topics. It’s safe to say his responses were so out of touch with mainstream Taiwanese thinking that even his own Kuomintang (KMT) party members were scrambling for the exits.
The interview starts with DW mentioning Ma’s previous comments that mandatory military service should be left at four months and defense spending should remain at 2.5% of GDP. “No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with (China). You can never win. They are too large, much stronger than us,” Ma replied.
“If you always believe in a strong defense, that is alright, but in the situation of Taiwan, that will be very dangerous to our people,” Ma added.
The KMT and China have long tried to label the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) pro-war because of its increasing investments in national defense. Simultaneously, it is trying to frame tomorrow’s election as a choice between “war and peace,” with the KMT and Beijing as the path to peace.
The only military aggression in the Taiwan Strait comes unilaterally from China, with increased air defense identification zone incursions from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), more PLA naval and Chinese commercial ship activity pushing the boundaries of Taiwanese territorial waters, large-scale army and navy drills directed at the nation, thousands of Chinese ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, and now “weather” balloons.
War and Peace?
I would argue not building up deterrence against the sole military threat Taiwan faces is not only more dangerous, it also defies logic and is woefully naive. The whole point of deterrence is to prevent a conflict, not to start a war.
DW then noted that Taiwanese military expenditures are meant to buy enough time for the U.S. and possibly Japan to come to Taiwan’s aid if there was a Chinese attack. “That is too optimistic,” Ma observed.
He then said that deterrence is difficult and Taiwan should not put “all our fate in defense.” He added the country needs to use peaceful means to talk with China and reduce tensions.
Taiwan is not the one ratcheting up tensions and threatening war if we do not get our way — we have always been open to dialogue without preconditions. The onus is on Beijing to dial things back.
Ma was then asked if he thought the U.S. would get directly involved. He did not think so because a faceoff between Washington and Beijing could lead to nuclear war.
Would the U.S. get involved though? While the U.S. may not come just because Taiwan is a democracy under threat from an authoritarian neighbor, I can think of one little reason why they would — chips. Taiwan makes over 60% of the world’s semiconductors and over 90% of the most advanced ones. It’s reasonable to say that the U.S. would not be keen on seeing its economy grind to a halt.
Too optimistic
This brings us to the part of the interview that left the Taiwanese picking their jaws up off the ground. When asked if Xi Jinping is someone that Taiwan can work with, Ma said, “I think yes.”
As to how that would be done, Ma said the "92 consensus." This refers to an alleged meeting between the KMT and China in 1992 that supposedly created a basis for Taiwan and China exchanges. However, Ma is only referring to the KMT’s version of events, saying it stands for “one China, respective interpretations.”
He conveniently left out what China says of the meeting, which is there is “one China,” including Taiwan, and that the People’s Republic of China is the only legitimate representative of China.
The fact that China and the KMT have two completely different interpretations of the "92 consensus" points to anything but a consensus. Calling it the “92 discord” would make more sense.
DW then asked Ma if he thought he could trust Xi. “Well, as far as cross-strait relations, you have to.” Ma’s own words come to mind here, “That’s too optimistic.”
Or one could just look to Hong Kong and the “one country, two systems” framework that was supposed to be in place until 2047 to see how much a promise from China is worth.
Stand or sit
DW then noted that Xi said unification is a historical necessity in his New Year’s speech, to which Ma replied he did not think Xi was pushing for it. He then immediately contradicted himself saying, “Of course, they want unification, that is for sure.”
Ma then claimed that unification is part of the Republic of China constitution and that it is “acceptable” to Taiwan, but that it has to be done peacefully and through a democratic process, and if it is, then the Taiwanese might accept unification. DW replied by saying that polls show only 2% of Taiwan supports unification.
I for one want absolutely no part of unifying with the only country that is openly hostile toward Taiwan. In what universe could the open and democratic society we have built here possibly be allowed to exist as a part of China, a country that censors images and mentions of Winnie the Pooh on social media?
Part of the beauty of Taiwan is the plurality of ideas and opinions that can be expressed openly without fear of retribution or worse, imprisonment like in China. The same set of values that allows Ma Ying-jeou to express his trust in Xi Jinping are the same that allow me to wholeheartedly disagree with him.
As we head to the polls tomorrow, remember that it’s not a choice between war and peace, it’s a choice between standing with Taiwan or laying down and giving up.
