TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s 2024 elections were "less passionate" but "less predictable" than previous years, as three presidential candidates had not been seen on the ballot since 2000, Professor Dafydd Fell, a Taiwan scholar at the University of London, told Taiwan News.

Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections on Jan. 13 witnessed milestones, such as the first time a political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won a third straight presidential election. For the first time, all presidential candidates also hailed from Taiwanese families that were in Taiwan before the Kuomintang (KMT) arrived from China.

There were other milestones Fell said that mainstream media may have missed, such as the election of Taiwan’s first openly LGBTQ+ legislator. Taiwan’s first female transgender candidate also stood for election.

Watch the full conversation on YouTube.

Election system

A ruling party’s second term is usually when they lose support, but according to Fell, “Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and the DPP have been remarkably popular.” The scholar asked, “Is it because the DPP governed well.. or should we focus on the failures of the opposition?”

“Taiwan managed its election extremely efficiently,” he said. “Voting ends at 4:00 p.m., and then you have some idea of the result within a couple hours.”

Regarding the 72% voter turnout, Fell called it “impressive,” especially considering that Taiwanese might find it harder to vote compared to other countries. This is because voting location is based on household registration, meaning people must travel back to their hometown, a possible challenge for those who moved to different cities.

Taiwanese also do not have the option to vote electronically or by mail. One of the reasons Taiwan maintains this system is because of trust and transparency, Fell commented.

When asked about Taiwan’s electoral system, Fell said it has many "advantages," including its legislator-at-large list. “I quite like the idea… which means even if your candidate loses in the district, your second vote can still have an impact,” he said.

Legislative Yuan and smaller parties

Although Lai Ching-te (賴清德) won the presidency, no party won a majority in the Legislative Yuan, which means “all parties have to compromise,” Fell said. “The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) can also claim to be the victor in this election because it holds the balance of power” in the legislature, he added.

Imagining what the next four years might look like for Lai under a divided government, Fell recalled 2000-2008, when the DPP’s first president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) never had a majority in parliament. “It was a period when Taiwan had quite hostile inter-party relations,” he said.

However, “It was also an interesting period for social and political reformers,” he said. It was a key period for gender equality legislation, as well as social welfare and national pensions, “so it wasn’t eight wasted years,” Fell said.

“I often miss Taiwan in the Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) era, when there was a lot more negotiation and compromise between the main parties,” the scholar said. “It will be interesting to see how the parties talk to each other over this transition period.”

Fell noted another big change during this election, which is that the smaller parties performed poorly. For progressive parties like the New Power Party (NPP) and the Green Party, “2024 was a disaster,” he said.

According to Fell, “the market for smaller parties has been squeezed,” partly due to the TPP, and the fact that “they have not found a way to work together.” He added, “The TPP is not really an alternative party. It’s really just based on whatever Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) says or thinks that day.”

Fell said, “We’re still going to continue to see dissatisfaction with what are now the three big parties, and that’s why I’m still hopeful” for the small parties.

Voter issues

The DPP faced discontent from voters for not doing enough to tackle domestic issues such as housing prices and stagnant wages. Fell noted, “The rise of the TPP is playing on that dissatisfaction.”

Examining the three parties’ responses to these issues in the debates, Fell observed, “It seems like they are all quite similar." The three parties’ main differences arguably lie in their foreign policy strategies.

Taiwan has elected a president not welcomed by China, but Beijing “will be relieved to see the DPP did not get control of parliament,” Fell said. He also observed that “Lai has sought to moderate his image,” toning down his language and position as a past pro-independence candidate.

“In 2020, my sense was that the U.S. was very worried about him… but I don’t get that same sense in 2024,” he said.