TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — If forced to align with China or the U.S., a majority of Southeast Asians would choose China, according to a new survey.
The Singapore-based ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute released the State of Southeast Asia: 2024 Report, which surveyed about 2,000 respondents from business, government, academia, and civil society between Jan. 3 to Feb. 23. It is the first time China has surpassed the U.S. as the preferred superpower among ASEAN nations since 2020.
This year, 50.5% of respondents said China was the more strategically relevant partner, up from 38.9% last year. U.S. favor dropped from 61.1% to 49.5%, pointing to Beijing’s expanding influence in Southeast Asia.
Seven out of 10 ASEAN members — Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand — polled higher in preferring China compared to 2023. The biggest jumps were seen in Laos and Malaysia.
Preference for China ranked highest in Malaysia at 75.1%, followed by Indonesia at 73.2%, and Laos at 70.6 %. The report noted these countries “have benefited significantly from China's Belt and Road Initiative and robust trade and investment relations.”
However, levels of distrust toward China are higher than levels of trust in all ASEAN countries, except for Laos. It was found 45.5% of respondents said they feared Beijing could use its economic and military power to threaten their country’s interests and sovereignty.
Overall preference for China fell in the Philippines, Vietnam, and Singapore. Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea were a top concern for the Philippines and Vietnam, which were more partial to the U.S.
When asked about a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait, most respondents, 45.1%, advocated for the adoption of diplomatic measures. Southeast Asians recognized it would have “significant implications for the region,” given geographical proximity and economic ties with both China and Taiwan.
At the country level, the Philippines demonstrated the highest percentage, 14.9%, in favor of facilitating military support for Taiwan. The report noted, “This aligns with the Philippines’ recent expansion of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the U.S., granting access to four additional bases, three of which face Taiwan.”
The survey results may portray that ASEAN is leaning toward China, but experts say the report demonstrates the challenge of unity. “Each country maintains its own agency and views on the U.S.-China binary question. Hence we cannot assume that the region has a united view about China or the U.S.,” said Sharon Seah, an author of the report.
Moreover, ASEAN nations are wary of becoming “an arena of major power competition and that its member states may become major power proxies.” According to the report, ASEAN believes its best response is to “enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressure from the two major powers.”
