TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — U.S. think tanks warned that China may try to coerce President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) to sign a peace or annexation deal by 2028.
On May 13, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned in a report that China has a strategy to annex Taiwan.
The report postulated that in Lai's first term, China will implement four “pulses” that include “coordinated actions in the air, sea, information, cyber, economic, cognitive, and other domains.” It said a four-year time frame would enable Beijing to “obscure the larger unification campaign that each set of actions actually serves.”
The report suggested Beijing would increase its coercion during each year of Lai's term to pressure the Taiwanese government and further isolate the country. It added China would then try to force Taiwan to sign a “peace agreement” or “unification framework” around 2028.
One of the report's authors, Dan Blumenthal, a senior fellow at AEI, said at a symposium on May 16 that the U.S. and its allies are too focused on deterring or repelling the People's Liberation Army (PLA), neglecting China's "nonwar military activities." He believed Beijing's goals were to create enough pain to make many Taiwanese desire peace and isolate the country from the international community.
Blumenthal said it is crucial to prevent China from redefining the legitimacy of its aerial and maritime boundaries in the Taiwan Strait.
According to the report, Beijing wants to try and paint increased cooperation between Taiwan and the U.S. as escalating cross-strait tensions. China also hopes to disrupt relations between Taipei and Washington.
Beijing may also try to carry out economic and cyber warfare, enforce inspections of ships importing goods into Taiwan, enact air and sea closures, and disseminate more Chinese propaganda against Taiwan.
Blumenthal suggested that instead of tracking and monitoring every Chinese military exercise, aircraft, and naval movement, or responding with equivalent military actions, the international community should focus on political actions that target Beijing's real concerns with “political asymmetry.” For example, increasing Taiwan's civil aviation cooperation with other countries or promoting Taiwan's inclusion in regional air defense frameworks would be more effective responses.
The AEI symposium Blumenthal attended titled “No Invasion Necessary: How China Can Use Coercion to Take Taiwan Without a War” can be seen below: