TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — An Indian International Affairs scholar and China expert said India’s new coalition government is unlikely to affect the trajectory of India-Taiwan relations.

Narendra Modi was sworn in as India’s prime minister on Sunday (June 9) after being elected for a rare third term in office. However, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to win a majority of parliamentary seats and formed a coalition government with parties of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Jindal School of International Affairs Associate Professor Dr. Sriparna Pathak told Taiwan News that while it was a surprise the BJP did not secure a majority of seats, the result is not likely to affect the India-Taiwan relationship. Speaking via WhatsApp from the northern Indian state of Haryana, Pathak said that India’s incoming government needs Taiwan to fulfil economic promises outlined in its election manifesto.

“Narendra Modi has said that India is going to become the third largest or third most economically successful country in the world in the next five years, so for that, the economy needs to keep growing,” Pathak said. She noted the investments of Foxconn, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), and others in India over recent years.

Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchange messages on X following Modi's reelection. 

To keep the promise of becoming the world’s third largest economy, these kinds of investments can not stop, Pathak said. “This is why India needs Taiwan at the moment, and is why engagements will continue,” she said.

Shortly after India’s election results were announced on June 5, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) posted a message on X (formerly Twitter), expressing congratulations to Modi and hopes to deepen economic and technological cooperation between the two sides. Lai also wrote that Taiwan hopes future collaboration will “contribute to peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific.”

Lai's hopes for peace and cooperation were reiterated by Taiwan's foreign ministry on Monday. “India is a key target of Taiwan's New Southbound Policy,” the ministry added in a press release.

Shortly after Lai's X post, Modi thanked him with a reply from his own account. “I look forward to closer ties as we work towards mutually beneficial economic and technological partnership,” Modi said. 

When asked about Modi’s failure to mention the Indo-Pacific, Pathak said the choice of words used in the exchange was intentional. Modi is “clearly putting forward the thing which Taiwan needs from India the most,” she said.

Pathak said that in his message Lai may be expressing a wish that India will use its position in the Quad (a security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the U.S.) to maintain peace in the region. She added that while campaigning, Modi’s BJP put forward a plan to continue working with “like-minded partners” in the Indo-Pacific if elected, which she said includes working with the Quad.

In further signs of foreign policy continuity, Modi announced on Tuesday that the foreign affairs and defense ministers, who are members of the BJP, would remain unchanged from his second term. In addition to these portfolios, Modi’s party has also retained the home affairs, finance, commerce, and agriculture ministries in the new cabinet. 

Pathak said that prior to the election there were some discussions regarding how India might respond to a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, and that she believes the Indian armed forces would be unlikely to intervene if a crisis were to occur. It would be difficult for India to respond, as it is already occupied on its own border with China, she said.

“I think that's why Narendra Modi said, in his words, let's look at economics and technological partnership first.”

Indian migration to Taiwan is also expected to increase under Modi’s third term, as the two sides signed a migrant labor pact in February that will allow more Indian migrants to work in Taiwan. While the implementation of this pact has not been finalized, Pathak said it will provide Modi’s BJP with a means to alleviate some voters’ employment worries.

“One of the reasons why the BJP government did not get as many votes as expected was employment,” she said. Pathak noted that it is still unclear how many laborers Taiwan may eventually accept from India: “But we understand that it's going to be blue collar laborers, primarily in the caregiving sector.”

In March Taiwan's labor minister Hsu Ming-chun (許銘春) said the introduction of Indian migrant workers will begin on a “small scale.” Hsu said previously reported figures of up to 100,000 Indian migrant workers being allowed into Taiwan were inaccurate and said discussions were ongoing.

Pathak said whatever the number is, the employment pact will help the BJP appeal to its voters, while also improving the Taiwan-India relationship.