TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China could attempt to annex Taiwan through quarantine instead of engaging in a full-out conflict, the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned in a recent report.
Unlike a blockade, which is a military operation, a quarantine is carried out by law enforcement “to control maritime or air traffic within a specific area,” the report said. It is not a declaration of war on Taiwan, it added.
If other nations comply with the quarantine, it strengthens China’s claims over Taiwan and undermines Taiwan’s sovereignty. Beijing can end its quarantine once it claims its goals are achieved.
A quarantine will not require China to close or restrict access to the Taiwan Strait, meaning freedom of navigation will not be violated. This would make it difficult for the U.S. and its partners to justify intervening. If Washington did take action, it could be perceived by the international community as the aggressor, CSIS claimed.
By claiming Taiwan as Chinese territory, Beijing can require customs declarations for all ships docking there. “Chinese law enforcement vessels will be authorized to board vessels, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and undertake other measures against noncompliant ships,” the report said.
China can “have an outsized deterrent impact and discourage similar transgressions” by searching and seizing a number of ships, the report said.
Additionally, China would only have to warn a few civilian aircraft to limit regional air traffic, CSIS speculated. Ultimately, a successful quarantine depends on how Taiwan, the U.S., and other allies respond, the report said.