TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Trump’s momentum has grown in the past week, mostly due to concerns over President Joe Biden's cognitive decline at a televised debate on Thursday (June 27).
Polls compiled at RealClearPolitics show a Trump victory may not only occur in swing stages and the electoral college, but potentially the popular vote, per Capitalist Notes, which goes on to detail what many can expect should Trump return for a non-consecutive, second term in the Oval Office, a feat only achieved by Grover Cleveland in 1893.
According to Capitalist Notes, incoming presidents use their first “100 days in office” to set a legislative agenda for the country, pushing through controversial bills that bolster the economy or set new social policy agendas. Franklin Roosevelt was the president who coined the phrase, using it to jumpstart an economy mired in the Great Depression, and Ronald Reagan quickly slashed income taxes and increased interest rates.
Judging by Trump’s previous “first 100 days in office,” which began on January 20, 2017, as a novice politician he proved slower in enacting legislation but before the year was out, he signed significant cuts to corporate and personal income taxes and started an “America first” view of international trade which sparked a U.S-China trade war. His first term saw three years of economic growth that were cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Firing Line
Should Trump win, he is likely to follow the same playbook, with a slow rollout of reforms in trade, immigration, and economic stimulus. Many expect his first actions to involve staffing at top government agencies or “retribution” for those who have challenged him in court.
High-profile firings will also awaken complacent bureaucrats to Trump's regained power, according to Capitalist Notes. The first firings anticipated are expected to be FBI Director Chris Wray, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Charles Brown Jr., and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Hiring a new military commander will help Trump transition the military toward a maritime force better prepared to respond to tensions in the South China Sea and reduce reliance on the Air Force. And handpicking a Fed chair will allow Trump to print more money to prime the economy.
Trump will also likely resume his attacks on the press corps serving the White House, likely doing away with daily briefings and other activities. He may choose only to give interviews with sympathetic media or appear at photo opportunities.
Legislative Policies
Trump will then get down to the business of running the country and his legislative agenda. The top topic of his campaign rallies in recent days has been the phase-in of the 60% tariffs on China-made products and a 10% overall tariff hike, per Capitalist Notes.
Should Trump and the Republican Party carry both houses of Congress, Trump will be unopposed when implementing new trade regulations. In contrast, during the first Trump administration, it took two years to put into place higher tariffs on steel and aluminum and to raise tariffs on some Chinese imports.
Slow action on tariffs could occur again if Trump does not prioritize it as part of his “first 100-day campaign.” European goods will also be affected, though the brunt of the pain from higher tariffs will be felt by China.
Trump is also likely to order the Border Patrol or the U.S. military to patrol the country’s border with Mexico and assist in the deportation of all illegal aliens. The courts may delay the implementation of Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration, though many expect him to carry out his tough talk, per Capitalist Notes.
Trump is also expected to send Congress a budget with steep spending cuts that will attempt to rein in the federal budget. Soon, the government will spend more money servicing national debt than national defense, with interest payments continually rising.
Foreign Policy
Eager to capitalize upon his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump could seek a summit with Putin to end the Ukraine war. Ending the war could reduce energy costs for some Americans who have paid more for oil and gas, while China and India have purchased steeply discounted Russian oil.
Putin has already put forward his opening negotiating position, while Trump and his national security advisor will work on details, bypassing the State Department and Congress. Richard Nixon pursued a similar tactic with Henry Kissinger to allow the U.S. to exit Vietnam, per Capitalist Notes
As for Taiwan, Trump has been evasive, providing misdirection on his view of the nation’s status. In a Fox News interview, he said that tipping his hand would put him at a disadvantage when negotiating with China, though he expressed displeasure that Taiwan has taken away all of the U.S. chip business, per Time.
