TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Japan Strategic Studies Forum (JFSS) held its 4th Taiwan Strait war game on Saturday and Sunday (July 13–14), inviting participation from Taiwan and Japan to play out potential cross-strait conflict.

Conclusions drawn from the exercise include the potential for gray zone tactics to quickly escalate into full-scale military conflict. Another uncertainty is whether an attack on Taiwan would qualify as an "existential crisis" for Japan.

Lai I-chung (賴怡忠), president of the Prospect Foundation, role-played the Taiwanese president in the war games, noting that the possibility of a Chinese armed invasion of Taiwan in 2027 is high, reported CNA.

“When war is likely, we hope that the U.S. and Japan will clearly express their intention to intervene with China. Another point is that we hope that Japan can respond to a war against Taiwan or a blockade war as an ‘existential crisis’ for Japan," said Lai.

Lai added that a trilateral coordination mechanism between Taiwan, the United States, and Japan must be established to cope with the possibility of a future war. "And finally, from now on, we need to reserve large amounts of energy, medical supplies, food, and related military ammunition. We hope that the United States and Japan can provide assistance in this area."

Lai said that when Chinese aircraft or ships invade Taiwan's territorial waters or airspace, "we will not hesitate to launch an attack; we hope that both the U.S. and Japan understand this, regardless of whether the other party launches an attack."

Japanese House of Representatives Akihisa Nagashima, who played the role of U.S. Secretary of State, said actions would be based upon the current state of relations and believed that Japan would be given the freedom to decide if an attack on Taiwan posed an "existential crisis” to Japan, potentially triggering action by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, per CNA.

After completing the simulated war games, Lai told local media that trilateral coordination between Taiwan, Japan, and the U.S. is needed as soon as possible. He said this would send a clear strategic signal to China.

According to Lai, Japan needs to be clearer about how it defines an “existential crisis” so that when Taiwan seeks cooperation with Japan, it will be relatively clear about the scope of cooperation that can be initiated. When asked about the "status determination," the Japanese government seems very conservative, he said.

"The status determination is Japan's subjective decision, and we will respect it, but in fact, we must also let Japan know what status determination could have a negative impact on our country. We must express our expectations and needs in this regard.”

Lai adds that misinformation and online attacks have also become an important issue, and Taiwan's past experience dealing with fake news is that it originates from sources not associated with platforms or sources owned by Taiwan, requiring more assistance from the U.S. and Japan.

Regarding the biggest difference between the third and fourth JFSS Taiwan Strait war games, Lai said last year’s session focused on cyber attacks, while this year’s session debated gray zone tactics that could be easily escalated to blockades or an invasion.

“Gray zone is also an increasingly prominent theme in discussions between Taiwan and the United States. Of course, we must be prepared to respond to a military attack on Taiwan, but now gray zone issues are encountered every day, all day long, so we must deal with them,” said Lai.