TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a report warning that China may target Kinmen for annexation by means of a blockade. 

Referring to such a measure as a “short-of-war coercion” strategy, the ISW report warns that quarantining Kinmen could serve to erode Taiwan’s sovereignty and steadily normalize Beijing’s jurisdiction over the territory. The report draws from multiple examples in recent years of China’s efforts to impose its authority in the Taiwan Strait. 

The study was published on Wednesday (Aug. 21) by Matthew Sperzel and Daniel Shats of the ISW, and Alexis Turek of the American Enterprise Institute. The report also warns that unpreparedness or unwillingness to respond on the part of the US will greatly increase the likelihood of this scenario.   

To decrease the likelihood of Beijing taking this action, the authors call for Taiwan and its allies to preemptively strengthen Taipei’s lines of communication to its outlying territories and to bolster defensive capability by increasing the Coast Guard presence in Kinmen and in the Taiwan Strait. This may also be assisted by a recognized and deputized Taiwan merchant marine force, authorized by Taipei to expel Chinese boats from Taiwan’s territorial waters. 

As the ISW makes clear, the proposed short-of war coercion campaign targeting Kinmen, and potentially similar measures targeting Lienchiang or Penghu Counties, appears increasingly likely. 

In late 2023, China unveiled its plans to integrate Taiwan’s economy into Fujian’s by means of a Cross-Strait Integration and Development Demonstration Zone. This was followed by a raft of proposals in May targeting Lienchiang County, also known as Matsu Islands for economic integration, which were considered a potential national security threat by Taipei. 

Over the past several years, China has expanded its presence and activity in the Taiwan Strait through the use of gray-zone tactics, steadily increasing the number of Coast Guard and naval patrols in the region, especially around Kinmen. Taiwanese scholars assert that China is conducting these maritime patrols with the intention of transforming the Taiwan Strait into a “quasi-inland sea.” 

Chinese scholars have also recently recommended that Beijing establish a “shadow government” for Taiwan in nearby Xiamen, Fujian. Their proposal calls for a Central Taiwan Work Committee capable of being transplanted to Taipei following an invasion of Taiwan. 

The ISW report calls for increased vigilance by Taiwan and regional allies to ensure that China’s slow-step process to annex Kinmen does not succeed. According to the ISW, “The success of (China’s) campaign hinges on Taiwan, the United States, and other countries failing to respond meaningfully … and ultimately conceding to China’s demands.”