TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Recent criticisms from the opposition party and military analysts have blasted Taiwan’s domestic submarine program as too costly, while critics have also alleged major development delays.
However, given the capabilities of submarines, they are exactly what Taiwan needs to deter a Chinese invasion. Taiwan prioritizes asymmetry in its defensive strategy, focusing on cost-effective weapons to repel larger and well-equipped Chinese forces.
When then-President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) announced the plan to construct a fleet of eight subs in 2016, it was this asymmetric strategy that she had in mind. Submarines can carry out multiple missions, including sea-denial, anti-surface, submarine warfare, and intelligence collection.
Strategic importance
In Taiwan’s case, submarines could break a Chinese blockade and target enemy military ships before being detected. They could operate with a higher survivability than surface vessels.
“Conventional submarines, even in relatively small numbers, are one of the best means for a weaker naval power to defend itself from seaborne invasion by a stronger power,” according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Former Taiwan Navy Admiral Huang Shu-kuang (黃曙光) said in a Nikkei Asia interview that building a submarine fleet would block access to the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel, two strategic waterways. This would prevent China from successfully surrounding the nation, Huang said. Armed with MK-48 heavy torpedoes, submarines would be able to cut off supplies for Chinese military ships even if they reached Taiwan’s eastern waters, the retired admiral added.
Due to their stealthiness, submarines can deter the enemy in an area even without being there, US submarine commander Clint Christofk said in a US Naval Institute article. “This allows an outsized or asymmetric effect to be realized,” Christofk said.
The role of submarines has been well-documented in past conflicts. During WWII, US Navy subs targeted enemy merchant and naval ships in joint operations. The Japanese war economy suffered immensely because of these missions.
Near the end of the war, American submarines could not find many targets because there were no more Japanese ships left to sink, according to the US Department of Defense (DOD). US submarines destroyed 1,314 enemy warships in the Pacific, the DOD said.
In the Falklands War, Argentina was left with just one submarine, the San Luis. Its presence in the area led the Royal Navy to alter its offensive plans and launch 200 torpedoes at false targets.
“The Falkland experience suggests that cheap diesel submarines could be very difficult to counter even when facing well-trained and well-equipped adversaries,” analyst Sebastien Roblin wrote in The National Interest.
No development delays
Taiwan revealed its first submarine, the Narwhal, in September 2023 after three years of development and construction. With the help of partner countries, access to key technological components allowed the prototype to be completed on schedule.
Since then, the submarine has been undergoing tests to ensure it is seaworthy. The Navy has said harbor acceptance tests are nearly 60% complete, with around 10 issues to be fixed. Navy Chief of Staff Chiu Chun-jung (邱俊榮) denied reports claiming the project was running behind schedule and said it would be handed over to the Navy next November after passing sea acceptance tests.
Between 2025-2038, the military plans to build seven subs in three phases. Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) approved the NT$284 billion (US$9 billion) plan in August. The first phase will produce two subs, while the latter two stages will see three and two subs completed, respectively.
Even if there were delays, they are a normal occurrence in weapons development. No country is immune to it.
According to a 2023 Congressional Research Service report, the US spent approximately US$13.3 billion on its newest nuclear aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford, which took four years to achieve initial operational capability after it was commissioned into service in July 2017.
The advanced aircraft carrier is equipped with an electromagnetic aircraft launch system and will “be able to deliver greater lethality, survivability, and joint interoperability, along with unmatched versatility and compatibility with continuing joint-force transformation,” according to analyst Peter Suciu. Many issues are still being worked out, Suciu said.
The US plans to build 10 Gerald F. Ford-class aircraft carriers to replace its current fleet.
Following through
As the submarine program continues to catch flak from critics, Taiwan should carry on with production to strengthen its defense capabilities and bolster deterrence against Chinese aggression. A recent Taiwan government report estimated China spent approximately US$15 billion on military exercises in the Indo-Pacific region last year.
This is concrete evidence that China will not renounce its goal of annexing Taiwan through force. Given President Lai Ching-te’s (賴清德) pledge to ensure national security, the submarines must be completed.
