TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) should make it clear Taiwan will refrain from declaring de jure independence, former American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) Chair Richard Bush said Monday (Sept. 16).

In a commentary about US-Taiwan security partnership issues for the Brookings Institution, the veteran Asia expert said both countries should minimize the risk of China concluding that war was the only option. Sending Beijing a clear message was sometimes difficult because China sometimes “misperceived” Taiwan’s intentions and political dynamics.

According to Bush, the government in Taipei is likely to exercise restraint on the independence issue because its priorities are domestic, US-Taiwan trust and communication is positive, and the public understands that if Taiwan provoked a Chinese attack, Washington would be less likely to rush to Taiwan’s defense.

The US should not express an absolute, public commitment to come to Taipei’s defense, but should help Taiwan resist China’s tactics of coercion without violence, Bush said. Assistance with defense against cyber attacks and improved economic relations to help Taiwan’s economy become less reliant on China were two options, he added.

As to the outcome of the November US presidential election, Bush said a Kamala Harris administration was likely to continue the policies of President Joe Biden. If Donald Trump won, his new administration’s conduct of Taiwan policies would be “disorganized with contradictory tendencies and rhetorical inconsistency” as during his first term, Bush said.