TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) should reduce public affirmations of Taiwan’s sovereignty as they inflame tensions with Beijing and do little to advance the nation’s actual de-facto sovereignty, according to a report from the International Crisis Group published on Thursday (Sept. 26).

The report from the Brussels and Taipei-based researchers urged Lai to return to a more moderate cross-strait stance that is closer to his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), even if it does not change China’s point of view. It said this should be done because Tsai’s policy created space for future negotiations, won international support, and reduced cross-strait tensions, while Lai’s has angered Beijing with little gain.

The researchers noted that Beijing did not reciprocate Tsai's more moderate position on China when she was in office. "But it was very much Tsai’s measured steadiness in the face of Chinese aggression that won her administration unprecedented levels of foreign support, creating more strategic space for Taiwan in the process,” the report said.  

“The Lai administration also ought to balance its shows of resolve by consistently affirming that cross-strait relations will be conducted in accordance with the constitution and the Cross-Strait Act; Lai should himself reaffirm this formulation,” it said. This formula was described by Tsai in January, when she told Lai (then vice president) also adhered to it.

Based on interviews with Taiwanese and Chinese scholars, officials, and other sources, the report argued that cross-strait relations based on this formula provide a beneficial ambiguity. It said this ambiguity allows Beijing to claim “one China,” and for Taiwan to claim sovereignty has not been ceded.

For many Taiwanese, the notion of “one China" is seen as “detached from reality,” the report said. However, it reasoned that because the Republic of China (ROC) constitution and the cross-strait act are two of the few Taiwan institutions that still retain this concept, they give Taiwan’s leaders room to negotiate with Beijing should the need arise, and create justification for why unification through force is unnecessary.

Lai Ching-te has said he will not formally declare Taiwan independent, and the report noted he said he will not provoke China. However, it also said that Lai’s rhetoric on China, which has led to him being name-checked by Beijing multiple times, reduces space for future de-escalation.

Taiwan’s leaders should only make “occasional and measured” public affirmations about sovereignty, the report said. “Lai may consider them important for setting the record straight, but they have limited impact in actually maintaining the foundation on which Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty stands.”

The report also highlighted that Lai labeled China as a challenge to the peace of Taiwan and the world in his inaugural speech, which researchers suggested may have caught Beijing off guard. It said Tsai did not “name and shame” China in her inaugural speeches.

In addition to basing cross-strait relations on Tsai’s formula, the report also recommends Taiwan strengthen its international partnerships, energy security, and defense reforms to improve national security.

Taiwan News submitted an inquiry to a presidential office spokesperson regarding the report, but did not receive a response by press time.

The report also urged Beijing to “curb inflammatory rhetoric” and use more flexible language to describe Taiwan, as it did before Lai’s inauguration. It also said China should curb the significant increase in military activities around Taiwan that have occurred since Lai’s inauguration.

If China reduced the number of aircraft that cross Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone’s median line it would also reduce tensions, the report said. It noted that public displays of military force reduce Taiwanese trust in Beijing, and “clearly undermine China’s goal of peaceful unification.”

The report also said US leaders should encourage Beijing and Taipei to be more flexible. It said Taiwan, China, and the US should make these changes as relations between Taipei and Beijing are becoming more “openly confrontational.”